Indiana opens as TD favorite over Miami in CFP title game
Jan 9, 2026; Atlanta, GA, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) reacts after the 2025 Peach Bowl and semifinal game of the College Football Playoff at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images To absolutely no one's surprise, No. 1 Indiana, fresh off a Peach Bowl blowout win, is the prohibitive favorite against No. 10 Miami in the College Football Playoff national championship game Jan. 19 in the Hurricanes' home stadium.
The Hoosiers (15-0) -- opening as 7.5-point favorites in the title game, per BetMGM -- annihilated No. 5 Oregon 56-22 in Atlanta on Friday night, guided by Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza's five touchdown passes. Seeking its first national title, Indiana has won its two CFP games by a combined 69 points, and it remains to be seen if Miami's stout defensive line, led by projected first-round pick Rueben Bain Jr. along with Akheem Mesidor, can slow this offensive juggernaut.
To win the game straight up, Indiana is at -300 compared to +240 for Miami. Betting $10 on the Hoosiers would earn $3.33, compared to $24 for betting $10 on Miami to prevail.
Mendoza, a Miami native in his first season at Indiana after transferring from Cal, will have plenty of support in his homecoming, from family and friends to a massive contingent of Hoosiers fans who took over the Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Friday night. All Mendoza has done in two CFP games is toss eight touchdown passes, zero interceptions and only five incompletions.
Meanwhile, underdog Miami (13-2) faced a much tougher challenge to reach the title game, but quarterback Carson Beck, in his first season with the Hurricanes after transferring from Georgia, scored the go-ahead TD with 18 seconds left to upend No. 6 Ole Miss 31-27 on Thursday night in the Fiesta Bowl in Tempe, Ariz.
The Hurricanes are no stranger to the national championship, having won five in their storied history, but have not hoisted the trophy since 2001. No team has won the national title in its own stadium, which should give Miami added incentive to capture title No. 6 in front of its devoted fan base.
--Field Level Media
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