MLB Picks Today: Best Bets for Orioles vs. Red Sox and Royals vs. Reds

How can it be June already? Oh well, time flies. Let’s nail a couple MLB Picks today.

Season Record 30-25-1, +2.41 Units

Orioles at Red Sox

Red Sox F5 -.5 (-103 BetRivers)

I tried fading the Orioles vs, lefty Steven Matz last week and they torched him. It’s a long season and outlier results happen. Also Matz isn’t very good and he was way outperforming his metrics, so it was absolutely my bad. But everything that made me want to fade the O’s vs. a lefty still exists and I will go back to that well again as they face a much better one today in the person of Connerly Early.

The Orioles go a bit platoon crazy when they face lefties, and I’m not entirely sure why. They will likely take out the red hot Colton Cowser as well as .335 wOBA second baseman Jackson Holliday and C/DH Samuel Basallo and his 283/.345/.516 triple slash. In their places we probably get Tyler O’Neil (.239 wOBA), Jeremiah Jackson (.288 wOBA) and Weston Wilson (.317 wOBA). Yes, the former three hit worse vs. lefties, and these changes don’t all always take place. But they were/are top Orioles prospects who would probably be better vs. same side pitching if the O’s didn’t constantly bench them for random guys who happen to bat righty.

OK rant over, here’s more hard data; The Orioles have just a 72 wRC+ vs. lefties since the beginning of May, 3rd worst in MLB. They’re just 5-9-5 in the F5 on the season vs. lefties with a -23.1% ROI. The O’s are also just 9-17, -35.3% ROI on the F5 run line on the road. Early has a 2.80 career ERA and 1.15 WHIP with a 17% K-BB%. His ERA estimators suggest he’s not quite as good as his underlying numbers, though a 3.59 SIERA and 3.98 xERA suggest he’s still above average. That’s probably all he’ll need.

Royals at Reds

Reds F5 -.5 (+114 FanDuel)

Speaking of teams that are terrible on the road and vs. lefty starters, let’s fade another one here. The Royals are actually terrible everywhere, but particularly so in this spot as they’re 9-19, -35.1% ROI on the road F5 run line and 3-12, -62.3% ROI vs, lefties. It’s no mystery as they have just a 71 wRC+ vs. southpaws in the last month. The Reds starter today Andrew Abbott has made a career of beating his estimators year after year, and he’s up to it again in 2026. He has a 3.88 ERA vs. a 4.95 xERA and 5.06 SIERA. Yeah, he’s really not that good. His opposite number today Noah Cameron is a lefty who pulled the Abbott trick in 2025 as his excellent 2.99 ERA belied his 4.77 xERA and 4.33 SIERA. He’s the exact same pitcher this year, his K-BB% has actually nudged higher from 12.8% to 13.5%, but his ERA is now 4.81. Basically he had a lucky .241 BABIP that’s up to .325 now. I’ll roll with the modestly better pitcher in Abbott and the much better Reds team.