For the first time since the federal ban on sports betting was overturned in 2018, legal NFL wagering is expected to show almost no year-over-year growth. A new forecast from the American Gaming Association (AGA) estimates that Americans will place $29.5 billion in wagers with legal sportsbooks during the 2026 NFL season.
That projection is only slightly above the $29.4 billion wagered during the previous season, marking an increase of just 0.3%. While the total betting volume remains historically high, the forecast suggests the rapid expansion that defined the industry’s early years may be slowing.
Since sports betting expanded across much of the United States, annual NFL wagering totals have consistently climbed. The NFL remains the country’s most popular betting product, and the season typically generates some of the highest sportsbook activity of the year.
However, the AGA noted that the market is now entering a different phase. The organization had previously projected $30 billion in NFL wagers for the 2025 season, but actual betting volume finished lower at $29.4 billion. The latest forecast indicates sportsbooks are unlikely to see a major increase this year despite continued demand from bettors.
The slowdown comes as the regulated sports betting market matures. Most major states that were expected to legalize sports betting have already launched markets, limiting the opportunity for growth through geographic expansion alone.
A major theme in the AGA’s outlook is the growing presence of sports-focused prediction markets. These platforms have rapidly expanded their offerings and now allow users in many parts of the country to participate in sports event contracts.
Industry groups representing traditional sportsbooks argue that prediction markets are competing for the same customers while operating under different regulatory frameworks. The AGA pointed to these platforms as one reason legal sportsbook handle growth has flattened compared to previous years.
The organization also highlighted concerns about accessibility and market oversight. According to the AGA, sports-related contracts account for a significant portion of trading activity on leading prediction market platforms, creating direct competition with regulated sportsbooks during major sporting events.
Despite the slower growth forecast, the NFL continues to hold an outsized role in the U.S. betting industry. Sportsbooks routinely experience their strongest traffic and wagering activity during football season, particularly around marquee matchups, the playoffs, and the Super Bowl.
The arrival of another NFL season is expected to produce billions in betting activity across legal operators. Many sportsbooks have spent months preparing for the start of the schedule, which often serves as the industry’s most important annual revenue period.
While growth may be limited, nearly matching last season’s record betting volume would still represent one of the largest NFL wagering totals ever recorded in the United States.
The latest estimate reflects a sports betting market that appears to be stabilizing after several years of rapid expansion. Growth is no longer being fueled primarily by new state launches, and competition is increasing as alternative products enter the market.
Whether the AGA’s forecast proves accurate will become clearer as the season unfolds. For now, the projection suggests that legal sportsbooks may be entering a new phase defined less by explosive growth and more by competition, retention, and maintaining market share in an increasingly crowded sports wagering landscape.
