Commodity prediction markets are hotter than ever and we’re here to show you how to make your trades. Well worth a look for anyone looking to benefit from the price movement of everything from oil to gold.
We’ll walk you through how you can use prediction markets sites to buy and sell event contracts for all of the biggest commodities, and reveal the three best brands for doing this. Plus you’ll learn why commodity price movements are such a smart thing to predict and we’ll even give you some expert trading tips to keep in mind.
Commodity prediction markets are where you typically make a prediction on the price movement of a commodity such as oil, gas or gold, and then buy an event contract matching that prediction. Such contracts will often be a binary Yes or No answer to a question such as any of the following:
The contracts you buy will be valued between $0.01 and $0.99, and this value will be established by the aggregated trading activity of other people on the prediction markets site. The cheaper contracts are those less likely to be correct, whereas the more expensive are the ones more likely to be right.
Once the event has finished, a correct contract can be redeemed at a value of $1.00. This means that the cheaper and riskier contracts will end up being more profitable if correct. Note that this is a little different from perpetual futures prediction markets where there is no specific end date for your contract to settle as a win or loss. Plus you’ll be free to sell your contract at any time, even before the event has actually settled.
Just as there are countless commodities that can be traded at stock exchanges, the same is true for the different kinds of commodities that you can make your predictions on. Each prediction market site will have differing selection, but here are some of the most common commodities prediction markets:
Given the current geopolitical climate, it’s little wonder that the price of oil is one of the most popular things to predict. Expect to be able to make your predictions on the price movements of WTI Crude and Brent Crude as to whether it goes up or down, reaches a certain figure that day, and even how low or high it’ll get by the end of the year. Some sites will even let you predict when the price of oil might hit an all-time high.
You should be able to make predictions on the natural gas price on a daily basis, as well as the lowest and highest prices this year. Some sites will also let you predict the US gas prices this day, week or year, and you might even be able to make your predictions for certain locations such as New York, Texas and so on.
Gold, silver and copper are just some of the precious metals that you should be able to make your predictions on. This means that you can do things like predict the price of silver by the end of the day, whether the price of copper will go up or down, or even how the price of gold will compare with Bitcoin this year.
It’s interesting to see that various technological innovations are now being lumped in with commodities at prediction markets sites. For example, you can now trade on the price of ‘compute’ – the term used for processing power. Plus some sites will even let you predict the price of various tokens used for AI like Google Gemini and OpenAI.
The key thing to understand is that each prediction markets site seems to take great delight in finding ever more interesting commodities to trade. So if you ever wanted to make your predictions on the price of things like uranium, platinum or even palladium, you should find a site out there that meets your needs.
It’s perhaps best that we give you a concrete example of trading commodities prediction markets so that you can see what it’s all about. So once you’d signed up and made your deposits, you’d go to the lobby of the site and find the following topic:
This would mean that you have to predict whether the price of gold goes up or down by the end of the day. The prediction markets site will give you the price to beat as $4,007.60 and you would be able to buy contracts for the following two binary options:
If you bought the contract for the Down option and the price of gold between the target figure at the end of the day, your contract would then be worth $1.00 and you would have made a $0.28 profit. Conversely, if you’d purchased the Up contract and it was correct, you’d have made a profit of $0.72.
Note that your contract would be worthless if it was incorrect, and that you’ll usually have to pay modest commission fees of up to $0.02 for each contract traded.
There are obviously plenty more prediction markets out there besides commodities, so which is the best choice for you? Here are the key pros and cons of trading on the price movements of commodities rather than things like sports or politics:
Most prediction markets brands will let you trade event contracts for commodities, but some are definitely better than others. So here is a quick overview of three of our favorite brands for commodities prediction markets:
| Prediction markets site | Typically featured commodities |
| Kalshi | Oil, gas, copper , gold, silver, compute, tokens |
| Polymarket | Oil, gold, gas, silver, uranium, tokens |
| Crypto.com | Varies |
Trust the largest prediction markets brand in the US to give you perhaps the largest choice in terms of the commodities trades that you can make. You will be able to make trades on the price of Brent Crude, WTI Crude and natural gas every day or even how high or low they get by the end of the year. Plus there will be trades for US gas prices on significant days like Election Day or even in certain states such as California and Florida.
There’s also quality coverage of metals, with daily predictions to be made on the highs and lows of everything from gold and silver to copper. Plus there are some new commodities featured here like how much the price of NVIDIA compute will be today and at the end of certain quarters, or even how low the token price of something like OpenAI GPT or Claude Opus will be this year. Truly some thought-provoking commodity predictions to be made.
It’s worth noting that the Commodities section at Polymarket is located under the Finance tab, and there you will find plenty of interesting trades to make. There is a solid coverage WTI Crude Oil where you can predict things like up and down today, all-time high, end of month price and there are similar predictions to be made for everything from natural gas to precious metals like gold and silver.
If you know anything about Polymarket, it’s the fact that the brand is willing to put on some more interesting markets, and this applies to its coverage of commodities. After all, you can make your predictions on the price of uranium which is something that we haven’t seen at too many rival sites.
This is a well known crypto exchange that has recently made a move into the realm of prediction markets. The brand started off with sports and politics, and has recently been adding markets for everything from culture to economics, and it should be a good place for commodities event contracts too.
You’ll find it easy enough to sign up here via the brand’s user-friendly site or app, and the whole thing is nicely integrated into the exchange. We also appreciated how Crypto.com takes a clear and consistent approach with its trading commission fees, which is more than can be said for some of its rivals. Definitely worth a closer look if you’re new to the prediction markets phenomenon.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
While it can take a certain amount of skill to predict the price movements of commodities, it’s actually fairly easy to use any of the prediction markets sites listed here. This is a walkthrough of what you need to do:
Load up any of our recommended prediction market websites by hitting any of the links for the brands in the banners of this page
Create your customer account by adding in some basic personal details to the registration form
Verify your identity by producing documents such as your passport, driver’s license or a recent utility bill
Make a deposit with one of the featured payment methods
Go to the lobby and click on the Commodities tab
Browse the event contracts
Click on the contract that you want to buy
Select how many of that contract you wish to purchase
Make your trade and watch the price movement of the commodity to see if you’re correct
It’s fair to say that many people get it wrong when speculating on the price movements of commodities. But while anyone can make mistakes, we believe that the following tips should help you out when trading commodities prediction markets:
The first thing that you want to do is to set a sensible budget for how much you are willing to lose with your trading and stick to it. This way you should be able to handle any of those losses without it causing too much pain. Note that our recommended prediction markets sites will let you access a variety of responsible trading tools. These will typically allow you to set limits on your deposits, losses and so on.
It’s probably best to focus your attention on just one commodity rather than all of the available ones at the prediction markets site. Doing so will make it easier for you to research the relevant price movements of that commodity that are going to be critical to the success of your trades. Each of our approved prediction markets brands will let you track the price movements of each individual contract over the past few hours, days, months and so on.
You will probably notice that many of these prediction markets sites will let you see how other people are trading on the value of commodities, and there are often comments sections on each event contract page. It’s probably best to ignore what you read here as it can cause you to follow the crowd. Instead, do your own research and only base your trades on hard statistical fact.
Obviously the price movements of commodities is significantly tied with sociopolitical developments, and the recent conflict in the Middle East had a dramatic impact on the price of oil. As such, it’s best to keep a close eye on news stories and social media, as it can often just take one post from a powerful individual to send the price of a commodity through the roof or crashing through the floor.
Finally, it’s just a reminder that trading all kinds of prediction markets is hugely risky and this means that you will need to be modest in how you trade. So consider trading markets for the more stable commodities like gold and do it over the short-term rather than making long-term predictions where there is more room for errors. Plus always keep the number of contracts purchased to a minimum to play it safe.
This guide has shown you that it’s actually pretty easy to sign up to a prediction market site from all over the US and then enjoy making trades on the price movements of all major commodities. As a result, you could be buying a contract for the value of gold to fall, or even for oil to hit new highs.
Just remember that like all kinds of trading, commodities will involve a certain amount of risk and this means being careful to set your limits. But as long as you do this, you should be fine hitting any of the links to the approved prediction markets sites in the banners of this page to register your account and start trading.
Yes, it’s highly likely as most prediction markets sites are available in all 50 states in the US. Just note that there are some exceptions with the prediction markets at Crypto.com being unavailable for customers in Arizona and New York.
It’s possible, but fairly unlikely. This is because prediction markets sites only rarely have promo offers, but we’ll be sure to let you know should some deals emerge from our recommended brands.
Yes, you will nearly always have to be at least 18 years old to register an account at a predictions market site. As a result, there will be a requirement for you to verify your identity before you can start trading.
Yes, the vast majority of prediction market apps in this guide will let you trade on the price movements of all major commodities. Plus it’s worth noting that these sites are pretty mobile-friendly and will allow you to trade from the browser of your smartphone or tablet.
These prediction markets sites can be trusted because we have made sure that they are all regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Not only that but they also feature SSL-level encryption, robust KYC procedures and all of the responsible trading tools you need to stay safe.
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