HYPE prediction markets cover a range of outcomes that you can trade on in relation to the price movement of Hyperliquid. To be clear, this is not the same as trading the HYPE asset itself.
For example, you could trade event contracts on the price of HYPE by the end of the day, or if the price will go up or down in the next 15 minutes. We’ll guide you through how these prediction markets work in more detail below. Additionally, we’ll also introduce you to the best sites where you can trade them.
HYPE prediction markets are available on CTFC-regulated exchanges in the US, and are places where you can trade event contracts on future outcomes related to Hyperliquid. In most cases, the prediction market outcomes are based on the price moment of HYPE within a set time from or by a certain date.
For example, a popular market on Kalshi is the “Price of HYPE today at 5 pm EDT”. Or if you’re looking shorter-term, you can trade on the price going up or down within the next 15 minutes.
As with traditional sports betting, you win a profit if you make correct predictions and lose your entire outlay if you are incorrect. However, prediction market trading is distinctly different from wagering, as we will see.
When it comes to making HYPE predictions, you’ll find markets that offer three types of event contracts:
First up, we have the simplest form, which is the binary event contract. With these prediction markets, you can trade on two options: the price going up or down.
For example, 15 minute HYPE predictions on Kalshi look something like this:
| 🎯 Target price: | $41.5213 |
| 💯 Chance: | 64% |
| ⬆ Up: | $0.64 |
| ⬇ Down: | $0.36 |
With these binary HYP event contracts, you have a simple choice:
Categorical prediction markets tend to have more open questions, and therefore, there are multiple Yes/No contracts that you can pick from when making your predictions.
As an example, let’s use “How low will Hyperliquid get in May?” Kalshi usually gives you 8 Yes/No event contracts, but we’ll stick with the top three to give you an idea of how it looks:
| 📈 Outcome | 💯 Chance | ✅ Yes | ❌ No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $40.00 | 91% | $0.91 | $0.19 |
| Above $37.50 | 61% | $0.62 | $0.43 |
| Above $35.00 | 27% | $0.40 | $0.65 |
Here you have multiple options, but once you’ve settled on your predicted outcome, you have a binary choice of how to trade on it:
For example, if you predicted that the price of HYPE wouldn’t go below $37.50, but were unsure if it would go below $40.00, “No” shares on the “Above $37.50” prediction market would be your best option.
Last but not least, we have scalar HYPE event contracts, which give you a selection of price ranges to choose from. Here, you often have event contracts on 40+ markets to pick from.
For example, for the market “HYPE price range on Friday at 5 pm EDT”, the Yes/No contracts list would look like this:
The prices of the event contracts for these HYPE prediction markets are roughly a 1:1 reflection of the chance percentage. However, as you can see in the example above, market opinion and trading volume sometimes move the contract prices slightly out of line.
However, the basic principle works like this:
When the prediction market is resolved, the event contracts for the correct prediction close at $1.00, with the rest closing at $0.00. Those with $1.00 contracts have a profit based on their purchase price, and those with $0.00 have lost their entire outlay.
To keep it simple, let’s refer to the binary example from earlier. If the target price was $41.5213 and the HYPE price was $41.3654, the market would resolve as “Down”.
Using the prices in the example above, this is what would happen:
For all HYPE prediction markets, there are three key ways that you can buy event contracts:
You enter the number of shares that you wish to purchase and pay the total price plus fees. For example, 100 shares at $0.64 = $64.00.
You enter a round number of dollars (USD) that you wish to spend on the purchase. This will result in you getting fractional shares, and the relevant fees still apply. For instance, if you spent $50 on $0.64 shares, you’d get 78.125 contracts.
With this option, you enter the maximum price that you are willing to spend per contract. This means that the trade will be cancelled if the executed price slips above your maximum expected price.
Three US exchanges offer Hyperliquid prediction markets: Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket. You may be charged a fee when buying contracts on all of these sites, but they each have a different fee structure, as we’ve explained below:
Now that we’ve explained how these prediction markets work in detail, here is a summary of the main pros and cons:
Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket are the three best-regulated exchanges in the United States where you can buy and sell even contracts for HYPE-related prediction markets. Here are our expert reviews for each of these trading platforms, highlighting what’s good and bad.
| 📈 Prediction market platform | 🇺🇸 No. of legal states | 🪙 HYPE prediction markets | 🏆 best feature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 50 | Yes ✅ | Market selection |
| Crypto.com | 48 | Yes ✅ | User interface |
| Polymarket | 50 | Yes ✅ | High-frequency markets |
There are 9 regular HYPE prediction markets that run every day on Kalshi, which is consistently ranked among the top exchanges in the US. You can find short-term binary outcomes, such as the 15 minute market, alongside range-based markets and multiple-choice event contracts, such as “How low will Hyperliquid get in May?”
The outcomes of all the HYPE price-related markets are verified by CF Benchmarks. Additionally, Kalshi also uses this FCA-regulated platform’s Real Time Index (RTI) to get the data for the market figures and resolutions. Specifically, it uses the HYPE/USD data stream.
You can buy and sell Hyperliquid event contracts in shares, dollars, and by placing a limit order. When you place a limit order on this site, you can set specific expiry time limits as well as a maximum price per contract. Moreover, you have the option to place a resting order only.
In general terms, Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC as a financial exchange. As a result, it is legal in the United States, with access permitted to residents aged 18+ in all 50 states.
This exchange doesn’t quite have as many options when it comes to crypto prediction markets. However, the interface is far easier to use, and all of the markets are easier to follow. As a result, it’s our top recommendation for prediction market novices.
Crypto.com actually covers more crypto prediction markets than Kalshi and Polymarket, with four daily markets: 20-minute, 2-hour, daily, and weekly price. While HYPE hasn’t yet been added, we’re led to believe it will be added any time now as part of the platform’s expansion, so watch this space.
When it comes to buying an event contract, entering your contract quantity is your only option. However, the purchase process is extremely quick, and it might work for you if you’re looking for a straightforward process.
As explained in the statement below, Crypto.com is regulated in the US to offer prediction market trading. However, all markets are restricted in Arizona and New York. Moreover, residents in the following states are prohibited from trading sports predictions: Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Illinois.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
Polymarket is the best exchange if you’re an experienced trader who’s looking for a diverse selection of prediction markets. In particular, the high-frequency markets may be of interest to you. For instance, as well as the 15-minute, there’s also the 5 minute Hyperliquid prediction market on this site.
It’s also the only exchange we’ve found to date that offers crypto comparison prediction markets. For example, you can trade event contracts on whether or not HYPE will outperform SOL this month.
The figures and prices for all of the Hyperliquid prediction markets on Polymarket are sourced from Chainlink’s HYPE/USD data stream. This is a reliable source, and a link is always provided in the market rules text.
Like Kalshi, Polymarket is CFTC-regulated and legal for residents aged 18+ in all 50 states. All trades on the site are made using pUSD (polymarket USD), which is the platform’s native token on the Polygon network.
Hyperliquid prediction markets allow you to trade on prediction outcomes related to the HYPE token, usually the price. Rather than trading the asset itself, you’re solely buying and selling event contracts for predictions of how the price will move within a specific time frame.
Just be aware that this is a volatile form of trading that can result in large losses as well as profits. If you’re comfortable with the risk, you can access the Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket exchanges directly via the banners on this page.
Prediction markets are related to how the price of the HYPE token will move in a certain time frame (e.g., HYPE price by 5 pm EDT). You can buy or sell event contracts based on your predictions.
Kalshi and Polymarket currently offer HYPE prediction markets. Though not available yet, Crypto.com is expected to add them soon.
First, you need an exchange account, like Kalshi. Once your account has funds, find the market and click the “BUY” button to get started.
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