Oscars prediction markets allow you to trade contracts on the various outcomes that this high-profile awards ceremony produces. As with other forms of event contract trading, you can win money by making accurate forecasts and lose money if you’re wrong.
There are various predictions that you can make, from individual film and actor nominees and winners, to which film will get the most awards and nominations overall. Event contracts are priced between $0.01 and $0.99 when you buy them, and close at $1.00 or $0.00, depending on whether they’re tied to a correct or incorrect outcome.
As we explained above, Oscars and movies prediction markets enable you to trade event contracts that are tied to the possible outcomes of the awards ceremony. If you purchase and hold contracts that are tethered to a prediction that ends up being correct, you will make a profit. If your forecast is wrong, you’ll lose all of the money that you spent on the shares, plus trading fees.
For example, if you thought that Ryan Gosling would win Best Actor at the next Oscars, you’d buy “Yes” shares for his market. Ryan Gosling winning or losing the Oscars would determine if you made a profit or loss. Alternatively, you could sell the shares before the Oscars take place, either for a higher price or to cut your losses.
As with all pop culture prediction markets, Oscars-related event contracts always cost between $0.01 and $0.99 in the run-up to the awards ceremony. These prices accurately reflect the probability that the market opinion is currently giving the outcome. Usually, this ratio will be 1:1, but market opinion can shift this slightly.
For example, if Ryan Gosling had a 53% chance of winning Best Actor according to the market, his “Yes” event contracts would cost roughly $0.53. Most Oscars event contracts are binary, meaning that you have “Yes” and “No” options.
To give you a visual aid to see what an Oscars prediction market looks like, here are the Best Picture event contracts that we’ve pulled for Kalshi at the time of writing:
| 🧑🎤 Actor | 📈 Chance | ✅ Yes | ❌ No |
| The Odyssey | 32% | $0.32 | $0.70 |
| Dune: Part Three | 14% | $0.14 | $0.87 |
| Wild Horse Nine | 8% | $0.09 | $0.92 |
Once the Oscars are over, all related prediction markets will be resolved. The event contracts that are tied to correct outcomes close at $1.00, and those tied to incorrect outcomes close at $0.00.
If you have purchased and held event contracts until the award ceremony’s conclusion, you will now either have a profit or a loss based on what you initially paid for the contracts.
To use the example above, let’s imagine that The Odyssey has just won Best Picture at the Oscars. Here’s how the six above contracts would close:
Focusing on winner, here’s how your profits or losses could look with the Odyssey event contracts in this scenario:
Now that we’ve explained what Oscars prediction markets are and how they work, here are the pros and cons:
One of the key things that we’ve yet to focus on is where you can trade on your forecasts for the Oscars. So without further ado, let’s take a closer look at the three best websites and apps for prediction markets that offer event contracts for the Academy Awards.
| 📈 Oscars prediction market site | 🏆 Best for |
| Kalshi | Best selection of Oscars prediction markets |
| Polymarket | Highest trading volume for Oscars predictions |
| Crypto.com | Lowest-trading fees |
Kalshi offers a great selection of Oscars prediction markets, including winners for all the award categories, including Best Actor, Best Picture, and Best Original Screenplay. If you’re trading at a time when the Oscars are still quite far off, you’ll find nominee prediction markets throughout the year.
The trading volume always seems to be very high for Oscars event contracts, especially for the flagship awards. We’ve checked the markets as far as six months from the date of the Oscars and still found over $1 million being traded on Best Actor and the other most coveted awards.
Besides racking tools, there’s also a handy “Market Information” section that gives you a good history of the award in question, including past winners. In the rare event that the Oscar winner is tied, both relevant markets will resolve as “Yes”, which is a fair stipulation that other prediction markets haven’t added.
Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and was the first prediction market exchange to launch in the US. It currently accepts players aged 18+ in the US, but is banned or partially restricted if you’re a resident of Arizona, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, Ohio, or Minnesota.
While Kalshi was the first Oscars prediction market site, Polymarket has overtaken it as the largest. Since launching its exclusive CFTC-regulated exchange app for US residents, its user base has grown exponentially. It’s accessible to users aged 18+ in most states, but always check for restrictions where you are.
Thanks to its large user base and the popularity of the Oscars prediction market, trading volume and liquidity are always high. Regarding the range of Academy Awards prediction markets, you’ll mostly find the name winner and nominee markets as you would on Kalshi.
That said, there are a couple of interesting markets that we haven’t found elsewhere. For example, you can trade event contracts on which film will get the most nominations at the next Oscars.
As well as real-time tracking graphs that show the current market opinion and figures, Polymarket also provides a written market context that summarizes the reasons for the data, usually citing things like the previous successes of the director or actors involved with a film.
Crypto.com now offers prediction market trading to its US users via its main trading websites and its standalone OG prediction markets app. Both of these platforms are CFTC-regulated and accept US residents aged 18+. However, Arizona and New York residents are completely prohibited from using the site. Moreover, users in Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Illinois cannot access sports prediction markets.
While the trading volume and market selection aren’t quite on par with the two platforms mentioned above, you can still trade event contracts for Oscars outcomes. This includes winner markets for all of the main award categories like Best Actor and Best Picture.
When buying event contracts here, there’s a flat fee of just $0.02 per contract. This is already lower than the fees on Kalshi and Polymarket. But it gets even better. If you hold the event contracts until the Oscars have finished, win or lose, your trading fees are waived.
When buying and selling your Oscars event contracts at Crypto.com, you’ll find that the platform is more stripped back with basic tracking tools. This makes it easier to use for casual and newer traders.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
To create your account on an Oscars prediction market app, you must register with your contact details, then complete full KYC to verify your ID. This process differs slightly on each site, but here’s a step-by-step guide detailing the key steps:
Visit – Follow the banners on this page to the prediction market you wish to trade on
Download – Install the app if you plan on trading on mobile (remember that Polymarket US is app-only)
Start – open the registration form by tapping the button
Sign up – Register using your email address, Google, Apple ID, or other alternative account
Security – Create a secure password and set up security questions and/or biometrics for 2FA login
Verify – Verify your email address and US phone number using the OTP that should be sent to you
Personal – Enter your full name, US residential address, and date of birth (this must match your official ID documents)
KYC – Enter your SSN and upload a selfie, photo ID, and any other documents that may be required to verify your identity
Submit – Submit the form and wait to get verified (shouldn’t take more than 48 hours if everything is correct)
Deposit – Find your account and trade event contracts for the Oscars and other cultural prediction markets
All forms of prediction market trading are risky, but with some good budget management, research, and application of your knowledge, you can increase your chances of making good forecasts. With that in mind, here are our top five expert tips to help you when trading Oscars event contracts:
You should treat Oscars prediction market trading as a speculative hobby, and not as an investment. Due to the very high risk of losing all the money that you outlay on contracts, you should never deposit and trade with a budget that you’re not willing to lose without worry.
Once you’ve made your deposit, spread it across different Oscars outcomes so that you’re not in an all-or-nothing situation. For example, you could buy some contracts for the Best Picture and others for Best Original Screenplay.
Don’t just spread your deposited funds across multiple events without rhyme or reason. Do your homework by studying market opinion and following what critics think. Precursor awards like the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, and the BAFTAs can provide heavy indicators of what films will do well at the Oscars.
Sometimes the market will overreact to an event or will favor an early favorite because of an actor’s or director’s reputation. For example, the Odyssey had a 32% chance of winning the 2027 Oscars’ Best Picture Award prior to its 2026 release date, based on little more than the fact that Christopher Nolan was the director.
Last but not least, you need to use logic over your emotions and personal taste. Basically, don’t buy contracts tied to the actor, director, or film that you want to win. Speculate based on the film that you logically think will win.
In conclusion, sites like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com are platforms where you can trade and speculate on the outcomes of various future events, including the Oscars.
If you buy and hold contracts that are tied to the correct outcomes, be that a winner or nominee, you win money. Of course, their counterbalance to this is that you can lose money if your forecasts are wrong. You should consider these risks first, but you can sign up and get verified at a CFTC-regulated prediction market via the banners on this page.
Kalshi and Polymarket are the two best prediction market sites for trading Oscars event contracts, due to their market range, liquidity, and trading volume. However, if you want a simpler, low-fee option, Crypto.com is also a good site for Oscars prediction markets.
Prediction markets for the Oscars enable you to speculate on the outcomes of the Oscars by buying and selling event contracts that are tied to a particular prediction. You can win money by making accurate forecasts and lose money if you’re wrong.
Before the Oscars, the event contracts for the various outcomes always cost between $0.01 and $0.99. Once the event is over, the contracts tied to the correct outcomes go to $1.00, with the incorrect ones closing at $0.00. This determines if you lose your entire outlay or receive a payout and profit.
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