The biggest event in international soccer is almost here. Hosts Mexico kick things off against South Africa on June 11, and we’ve been getting ahead of the action by reviewing the prediction markets you can expect throughout the competition.
Across a total of 104 matches, fans will have access to a huge variety of World Cup prediction markets. From outright winners and Golden Boot contenders to live match events, player props, and group-stage outcomes, there will be something for every type of soccer fan from matchday one all the way through to the final.
Before we start to break down the latest World Cup prediction markets that you are likely to come across, we want to ensure that you are up to speed with how prediction markets work, as well as who can access them.
In truth, the idea behind sports prediction markets is fairly straightforward. Rather than placing traditional bets on a specific outcome against the house, you will opt to buy or sell contracts based on the likelihood of a specific outcome occurring.
You can view World Cup prediction markets in a way similar to tradable assets, such as Gold or Silver. However, instead of one singular outcome, you will find hundreds of ways to trade World Cup markets. We will, of course, cover all of that shortly.
Prices throughout a match or tournament, like the World Cup, will rise and fall throughout, taking current performances, injuries, stats, scorelines, and public opinion into account. It is up to you to decide where the best entry point is and whether you plan to wait for the outcome to result or to sell based on market movement.
For example, France may come into this World Cup as the favorites. Value for France may not be the best for individual games, but it should still be competitive for group winners or World Cup winners, as we have yet to see how the other teams perform.
If France gets off to a poor start, then we will see prices fluctuate, and a better entry could arise for each upcoming match. Should they continue to impress from the off, we will see the probability of a win increase for each match, and, as group stage winners or eventual World Cup winners, based on how long this run lasts throughout the tournament.
Although you will find hundreds of World Cup prediction markets, the format will largely remain the same. The core structure revolves around Yes and No options, allowing you to simply decide whether an outcome will occur. Prices for each Yes and No option will range between $0.01 and $0.99. This will total $1.00, which is the value of each correct contract you open. This table provides you with a good example of how things could look ahead of the World Cup opener between Mexico and South Africa.
| Match winner | Chance | Yes | No |
| Mexico | 65% | $0.65 | $0.35 |
| South Africa | 35% | $0.35 | $0.65 |
Here, you can see that Mexico is considered the outright favorite. However, you will have the option of opening positions for or against both Mexico and South Africa. Sometimes you can find slight differences between the comparative Yes/No prices, so it always pays to remain vigilant while scouring potential entries through your chosen prediction markets app.
To submit your entry, you need to click on the price associated with your pick, enter the number of contracts you wish to purchase, and submit. From here, you will then find that you can wait for the outcome to result, leading to a $1.00 contract price per win. Alternatively, you can look to sell your position prior to the game’s end. This is an approach often used for damage control or those who are live trading specific in-game World Cup markets. To be clear, if your entries lose, you will leave with $0.00 per contract.
With this approach, we suspect that many of you will now be wondering whether prediction markets are legal.
Unlike the complexities surrounding sports betting and online casino action, you’ll find that World Cup prediction markets are available across the US, provided your chosen prediction market site is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
This wider availability has contributed to the recent growth of prediction markets across the US. Now, rather than being reliant on state-specific legislation, you will find regulated prediction market sites that operate under federally vetted frameworks and are tied to strict financial regulations.
In turn, many soccer fans will now find that they can make the most of World Cup prediction markets in states where traditional sports betting has yet to launch. Just bear in mind that you will need to be at least 21 years of age (18 in some instances) and be in a position to pass sufficient Know Your Customer checks before getting started.
Now that you know more about how prediction markets work, it is time to look at the types of World Cup prediction markets you are likely to encounter this summer.
Let us begin with the most common type of World Cup prediction markets that we have come across, focused heavily on outright winners.
World Cup winners: The big one. This market quite obviously focuses on the nations that could be crowned World Cup winners. In this market, you will initially find that markets are open to all 48 teams, and this will start to narrow as we move beyond the group stages.
Due to this approach, opening markets will provide the best entry points. However, at this stage, it is hard to predict how teams will play in conditions across the US, Mexico, and Canada.
Golden Boot: We are hoping for an action-packed, goal-heavy campaign, and you will find that most top-rated World Cup prediction market sites will already have markets available for the Golden Boot winner.
Names like Kylian Mbappe, Harry Kane, and Erling Haaland are expected to lead the race, but you also have to consider how likely it is for France, England, and Norway to progress. Both France and Norway are in Group I, so this already gives you something to think about before making your predictions.
Golden Glove: Top goalkeepers will be hoping that we are wrong about the prospect of a goal-heavy campaign, and the Golden Glove award will be on the mind of many top professionals going into this World Cup.
The last World Cup saw the heroics of Emiliano Martínez scoop up this prize, but it is names like Unai Simón, Mike Maignan, Thibaut Courtois, and Alisson Becker who lead the way this time. Of these three, Spain is expected to have the most imposing defense, but this award isn’t decided on clean sheets alone.
Golden Ball: Unlike the Golden Boot, the player of the tournament will be determined in a much more well-rounded way. Goals are likely to be taken into account, but officials will be focused on contributions to the team overall.
Stars of the World Cup favorites, like Kane, Mbappe, and Yamal, lead the way for this award. The Golden Ball winner doesn’t always come from the World Cup winner, but the award requires a deep run in the tournament, usually to at least the semi-finals. So prediction markets naturally focus on the best players from the best teams.
Young Player Award: This prediction market is similar to Golden Ball but is reserved for the new kids on the block. Of course, some of these youngsters have already made names for themselves on the big stage, but how will they fare on the biggest stage of all?
Unsurprisingly, names like Endrick, Yamal, and Warren Zaire-Emery lead the charge. However, we could see a surprise package shine through. Further names will soon be added to any prediction markets with a serious chance of taking this award.
Highest/lowest scoring team: This World Cup prediction market isn’t a direct award handed out by FIFA, but it can still be tracked easily. Here, you will find that you can enter markets based on who you believe will be the highest or lowest scoring team.
For this one, you really need to be paying attention to the possible route to the finals. Favorites like Spain and France, which also boast incredible attacking talent, are easy picks. For the lowest-scoring teams, countries like Curacao, Haiti, Cape Verde, and Jordan look to have a tough task ahead of them.
Most assists in the tournament: Again, there is no standalone Playmaker Award, but assists will play a huge role in the tournament and will be a stat that is heavily followed by prediction market analysts, coaches, fans, and players alike.
Depending on how Belgium performs, Kevin De Bruyne will always be a candidate here. Followed closely by the likes of Bruno Fernandes, Lionel Messi, and Kane.
You can also look to filter by group stage, rather than focusing on the outrights too early on. We found that some World Cup prediction market sites have already opened up the following markets.
Group winners: With 12 groups now to choose from, we anticipate that this market will prove popular across the prediction market scene. Here, you will find that you will have four options per group, ranked based on chance.
Team to qualify: This World Cup prediction market isn’t quite as strict as the Group Winners market, but it still requires you to do some additional research. With this market, you won’t need your pick to come out on top, but they must qualify for the next round.
Currently, some popular selections for this market include England, Spain, and Portugal. However, this could be a good opportunity to look out for unknown or surprise packages with a lower expected chance.
To be eliminated at a specific stage: Although the expected chance will hold greater value during the opening stages of the World Cup, you can look to enter this prediction market at any point before a specific team has been eliminated.
For instance, you may wait to see how Belgium performs in the group stages before deciding whether they are genuine World Cup-winning candidates. If not, or their run to the final includes a couple of difficult matches, you may opt to predict them leaving at the round of 16, quarter-finals, or semi-finals.
To reach a specific stage: Elimination is a tough one to call, especially when you consider how vastly playing conditions will differ across nations. Reaching a specific stage, however, should be a little more straightforward.
Generally, you can see how well a team takes to the new conditions within the first 90 minutes. From here, you can better judge how far they could go. This differs from elimination, as your prediction will still be considered a winner if your team surpasses expectations. i.e., predicting the US will reach the round of 16, only to find them make the quarter-finals.
Exact group position: You will approach this prediction market in a similar way to the group winner and will need to be exact in your prediction for your outcome to be considered correct.
This market could be wise if there is a clear outright favorite, such as Brazil (Group C) or Germany (Group E), and you may find better entries for predicting a second, third, or last-place nation.
The final category of World Cup prediction markets revolves around team and player match outcomes. The following should be expected from top-rated World Cup prediction market sites.
Match winner: You will find a total of 104 match winner markets throughout the World Cup, allowing you to open contracts based on who you believe will win, whether it will be a draw (group stage only), go to extra time, or result in penalties. Here is an example.
Both teams to score: This is a simple Yes/No World Cup prediction market that will be found across all 104 matches. As the name suggests, you will be predicting whether both teams are expected to score. Just be aware that some prediction markets will only include the first 90 minutes. In other words, if it goes to extra time at 0-0 and ends 2-1, your prediction will still be considered as a loss.
Penalty awarded: Again, this is another Yes/No World Cup market, but it can vary in terms of whether it is associated with the match or with an individual team. You may also find that matches during the later stages start to include extra time, so be sure to double-check whether this is also true of your chosen prediction market before making your selections.
First/last goalscorer: With this World Cup prediction market, you’ll want to review teams that are quick out of the gate or strong to finish. This prediction market can be focused on teams or specific players, and you will need to make the correct prediction for your entry to be considered a winner. Again, extra time may be included during the later stages of the tournament; however, if it goes to penalties, you will find that this is often not considered.
Team/player shots on target: Players hoping to get their hands on the Golden Glove will be doing all they can to stop those shots from firing in. This prediction market is ideal for any team that seems to be hitting the target but finds themselves up against a real shot-stopper. Again, this can be for teams or players specifically, and will often come with fixed values attached.
| Mbappe shots on target vs. Iraq | Chance | Yes | No |
| 0 – 1.5 | 5% | $0.05 | $0.95 |
| 1.5 – 2.5 | 11% | $0.11 | $0.89 |
| 2.5 – 3.5 | 24% | $0.24 | $0.74 |
| 3.5 – 4.5 | 29% | $0.29 | $0.71 |
| 4.5+ | 31% | $0.31 | $0.69 |
Extra time/penalty shootout: This is a World Cup market that is focused on the end result of a chosen match. Here, you can decide whether you think the game will conclude in 90 minutes, after extra time, or after a penalty shoot-out.
As you would expect, the value of this market is best prior to kick-off, but it is also a great choice for those who like to enter live prediction markets.
Winning margin: This expands on the Match Winner World Cup market by requiring you to dictate the winning margin. As we know, anything can happen in the World Cup, but this particular market is often preferred by those who enter the markets in-play.
Half-time/full-time: Finally, we want to touch on the half-time/full-time prediction market. This allows you to predict the outcome of the first half and the second half. When deciding, you may want to look at teams that start fast or finish well. However, it also works as an in-play prediction market, where you can look for a turn of pace or a momentum shift.
Happy with what to expect? Great. We now want to focus on how we judge World Cup prediction market sites, so you have an idea of how to find the best platforms to enjoy these types of prediction markets across.
That has covered how the team looks to audit World Cup prediction market sites, and now we want to show you what this looks like in reality. Here, we have three standout platforms that we consider excellent all-rounders ahead of the World Cup.
Kalshi is up first. Here, you can look to register online or through the dedicated mobile app before claiming up to $10 in trade credits. The prediction market site covers everything from politics and economics to culture and sports, including the World Cup. Current markets already cover more than 50 games, futures, awards, group qualifiers, and beyond. Plus, entering trades couldn’t be easier. Just bear in mind that fees of between $0.07 and $1.75 are applied per 100 contracts.
Polymarket is our runner-up. At this prediction market site, you can get things rolling with a 100% matched offer of up to $20. This can be unlocked online or through the mobile app, provided you enter DEADSPIN at the sign-up stage. Markets are just as diverse as those found at Kalshi, covering politics, finance, elections, world news, tech, and sports. Of course, the latter is what we were interested in today, and you’ll find World Cup prediction markets focused on outright winners, whether Neymar will play for Brazil, and just about everything in between. Fees are also in place here, but they are set at just 0.01% per entry.
Crypto.com is our final pick. The prediction market site offers a slightly more condensed selection of prediction markets, covering politics, economics, financials, culture, and sports. However, it does allow you to open multiple contracts, deposit from just $10, and lock in profits or restrict losses by exiting at any time. For World Cup prediction markets, you simply need to click on Soccer to showcase the current daily or future options. This includes outright winners of the competition, nations to make the finals, and the World Cup Golden Boot winner.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
We are certain that many of you will already be making up your decisions on where to begin your search for a World Cup prediction market site. However, before you do, it is important to pay attention to some of our top tips.
World Cup prediction markets combine soccer knowledge, strategy, and timing. Not to mention that you will have full control over whether you wait for your prediction to result or opt to close your position early. To get the most out of your predictions, you need to think with your head, not your heart, focusing on a little research and understanding before submitting your request.
To start, you’ll want to get familiar with the tournament structure. Things have changed this year from a 36-nation lineup to 48, split across 12 initial groups of 4. This gives potential qualifiers just three attempts to make it to the closing rounds; one slip-up is enough for prices to move erratically against them.
Teams that begin strongly often see market prices shorten dramatically, and any major events (injuries, red cards, etc) will impact things more heavily than that of standard club league competitions.
No – we aren’t suggesting that you disregard Mbappe for the Golden Boot or forget about Bellingham as an option for player of the tournament; we simply suggest looking at alternatives. This is the biggest stage in global soccer, and one of the only occasions where so many teams from around the globe come together.
We soon have superstars created and megastars embarrassed under these conditions, and you may find relative unknowns leading their teams out on the pitch. It is also important that you don’t consider teams as favorites because of certain players, as things change considerably when playing in a club system compared to with your nation.
The group stages are often where the best opportunities appear. Attention is almost always placed on outright winners and Golden Boot nominees, leaving markets for outright group winners, teams to qualify, or exact positions open with less emotional predictions driving them.
As already touched upon, injuries, red cards, and poor performances will soon impact prices, and you will want to try to stay ahead of the curve where possible. It is also particularly important to pay attention to lineups going into the final game of each group stage. Here, you may find teams that have already guaranteed first place will begin resting stars ahead of the following rounds. This could significantly impact the final result of game three.
Building a strategy follows on nicely from the timing of your entries. The idea of a strategy is to build a strict plan around how to engage with specific World Cup prediction markets. In turn, this should remove the prospect of following the crowd or getting caught up in impulse entries based on speculation or sudden market volatility.
In-play prediction markets are of particular interest to more advanced prediction market traders, using the emotional nature of the game (and fellow traders) to better predict potential outcomes. A red card early on could see the probability drop considerably for a certain team; however, if they are clear favorites, then you need to consider whether it is wise to go against them. You could also build a strategy around specific nations, specific types of markets, or a combination.
After building your strategy, you need to stay disciplined. This includes setting your own limits and sticking to the plan. It can be very easy to think short-term, but you’ll need to set your emotions aside, and search for genuine value within these markets – not what you simply hope will occur.
Overcommitting after a successful World Cup market prediction and chasing your latest loss is not going to end well. Although there are no guarantees, prediction markets tend to favor those who spot a trend prior to it becoming common knowledge, and this requires patience and a little preparation – just don’t forget to have some fun with it along the way.
Just before we recap on all that we have covered here today, we want to ensure that you have something to refer to, prior to opening your first contract. These steps should be enough to guide you through the process. Of course, we unfortunately can’t guarantee that these steps will lead you to your first successful predictions.
Check out the banners on this page to discover the best World Cup prediction market sites available to you.
Read through our latest reviews, make note of any exclusive bonus codes, and click on the links to get started.
Share some personal details, including full name, date of birth, and email address. Plus, any exclusive bonus code you may have.
Pass Know Your Customer checks, including proof of income, government-issued ID, and a household bill.
Provide answers to further information, surrounding your prediction market knowledge.
Wait for your account to be verified.
Make a deposit into your account.
Head to the Sports > Soccer > World Cup section of the prediction market site.
Filter through available World Cup prediction markets, and click on the price associated with your picks.
Enter the number of contracts you wish to purchase, and submit your request.
We would like to think that you are now in a better position to begin your World Cup prediction market preparations. To assist, we’ve ensured that the banners on this page feature prediction market sites that are available in your area, and you can use these reviews to quickly identify which platform ticks the correct boxes for you.
When considering World Cup prediction markets specifically, bear in mind that markets can fluctuate within seconds. A red card, injury, rumor, or off-pace star player is all it takes to see probability and entry prices plummet. To ensure you aren’t goaded into impulse entries, you’ll want to consider your own approach, building a strategy prior to reviewing the best World Cup prediction markets available to you.
Throughout, you should find opportunities to enter World Cup prediction markets at the group stages, those focused on individual teams and players, and options for tournament outrights. The question is, how will you decide to approach the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
The best World Cup prediction site will depend on your own preferences. That said, our experts have been busy putting top-rated sites to the test and have confirmed that Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket offer the most complete experience for soccer fans.
The best World Cup prediction markets sites will ensure that you can open contracts on World Cup winners, tournament MVPs, VAR specials, group winners, and match-specific outcomes. Not to mention that the fun doesn’t end after the World Cup, with many covering club soccer throughout the year.
Yes. Almost all World Cup prediction sites that we have reviewed will allow you to engage through dedicated mobile apps. This is great for those of you who are looking at live outcomes, and those who follow the news in the hopes of landing a solid entry point before the market spikes.
Yes. As with any tradable asset and sporting event, outcomes are never guaranteed, but it is possible to win money at a World Cup prediction site. If your outcome has resulted and is correct, it will be valued at $1.00 per contract.
In honesty, bonuses aren’t considered a huge part of the prediction market experience, but that doesn’t mean that you won’t receive rewards for signing up or referring friends. As some of these sites are hybrid trading platforms and prediction market sites, just be sure that any bonus is eligible for use on World Cup markets.
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