The American Gaming Association is reconfirming its stance on prediction markets. On Monday, the AGA posted on X that it believes event contracts tied to sports contests, offered on exchanges like Kalshi, are nothing more than illegal sports gambling.
“If it looks and acts like gambling, it should be regulated like gambling,” stated the AGA Monday afternoon. The post says that calling prediction markets “anything other than gambling” is disingenuous.
SOURCE: American Gaming Association ‘X’ account (May 11, 2026)
The AGA’s social media contribution cites an article written earlier this month by Vice President of Government Relations Tres York via the trade group’s official publication, GGB Magazine. In the writeup, York includes prediction markets as platforms that offer illegal sports gambling to Americans.
“The latest and most existential threat to Americans and the legal gaming industry is the proliferation of prediction market platforms offering sports gambling to the public,” according to York. The statement mentions a recent public comment to CFTC rulemaking that was co-signed by 41 state attorneys general, and led by New Jersey AG Jennifer Davenport.
The American Gaming Association is aligned with the predominant view of state gaming regulators and tribal authorities: that prediction markets use the term “event contracts” to disguise sports gambling. Tribes, particularly, have repeatedly voiced their concerns that prediction exchanges are the “fastest-moving threat” to tribal gaming since IGRA became law in 1988.
York, a political science graduate, argues in his article Drawing The Line that “Congress has begun to pay attention” to prediction markets, “with bipartisan concern increasing every day.” Market integrity concerns have become a hot-button issue on Capitol Hill.
In April, federal authorities arrested a US Army special forces soldier who is accused of using insider information to profit over $409,000 on Polymarket’s international exchange while using a VPN. According to the US Department of Justice, the soldier was personally involved in US military actions in Venezuela, and used classified information to predict then-president Nicolás Maduro’s ouster.
“Protecting the integrity of the legal gaming market requires continued collaboration and a shared commitment to ensuring that growth occurs within a responsible and regulated framework,” opines York.
Despite the AGA’s confidence in the efforts of state and tribal gaming interests to restrict prediction market apps in the US, the legislative movement to regulate contracts based on sports contests faces significant headwinds. The US Senate Banking Committee is expected to send the CLARITY Act – which would formally recognize the authority of the CFTC to regulate prediction market derivatives – to the full floor in an upcoming Thursday vote.
Separately, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, headed by Mike Selig, has remained steadfast in its claim that the agency enjoys “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets. To date, the CFTC has filed legal complaints against numerous states that are attempting to assess their own gambling laws against prediction exchanges that offer sports-related event contracts.
Loading …
