A report by CNBC published Tuesday suggests that nationwide demand for prediction market sports contracts remains healthy. Novig, a CFTC-regulated sports prediction exchange, achieved $127.9 million in notional trading volume for its first week of operation.
That figure far exceeds what competing exchanges Kalshi, Polymarket US, Underdog, and DraftKings Predictions attracted during their own opening weeks, according to a graph that was cross-posted by Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky.
“August is one of the slowest months on the sports calendar,” posted Fortinsky on Tuesday. “And Novig did $125M+ in trading volume in our first week. This is all while being 21+ and not going after teenagers. Just the beginning.”
Novig recently implemented sweeping responsible trading measures on its regulated sports exchange platform. Yet its most prominent self-regulation rule is that the exchange does not allow individuals between the ages of 18 and 20 to participate on its app.
Back in June, Novig told CNBC that “the 18- to 20-year-old demographic in some ways is uniquely susceptible to misbehavior in certain ways, and so we currently are 21-plus in our current product offering. We encourage the rest of the industry to follow suit.”
A blanket minimum age requirement of 21 for federally regulated prediction markets would, in Novig’s opinion, allow exchanges to steer clear of potential liability concerns that may arise from marketing to “teenagers” who are “uniquely susceptible.” However, there has been no indication by the CFTC or competing exchanges that other regulated platforms will eventually adopt a policy that blocks 18- to 20-year-olds from their apps.
With the MLB postseason starting in late September, professional baseball forecasts are responsible for a large percentage of sports event contracts that are being traded on prediction markets. But pro baseball’s dominance is expected to wane once the 2026-27 NFL regular season begins in three weeks.
As Novig’s CEO Jacob Fortinsky alluded to, August is typically a “slow” month for both sportsbooks and prediction markets in terms of sports contracts. Once the NFL regular season begins, fans are likely to switch a significant portion of their trading volume over to collegiate and professional football outcomes.
Football games in the US are expected to attract a swarm of new traders as well, a trend that some industry experts believe will prompt a new generation of traders to sign up for prediction market accounts, especially in jurisdictions that don’t already have state-licensed online sports betting.
Novig’s opening week trading volume impresses not only because it surpasses other exchanges’ first-week notional numbers by such a wide margin, but also because the platform does not offer contracts based on the outcomes of elections, global affairs, or entertainment awards. Novig strictly deals in sports event contracts.
Prior to becoming a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange, Novig used a sweepstakes model to attract customers to its platform. Now that it is federally regulated, it has outright abandoned its previous sweepstakes virtual currency mechanisms. Novig account holders now use USD exclusively when trading on the exchange.
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