Prediction markets have launched a new lobbyist group to defend federal oversight of exchanges such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The AMF website, Americans for Fair Markets, introduces itself as a platform in which “Americans choice” is intertwined with how prediction markets are categorized within the United States.
“Prediction markets are federally regulated financial exchanges where millions of Americans trade on the outcomes of real-world events,” reads the website’s homepage. “They are transparent, onshore, and built for integrity. We are making sure they stay that way.”
The group’s messaging seems to be aimed at prioritizing CFTC regulations for prediction markets, as opposed to the statewide oversight that online sportsbooks are licensed through. AMF’s launch also coincides with increased political pressure on US-facing prediction exchanges, ranging from Minnesota’s state ban on the platforms to public statements made recently by members of the Senate Commerce Committee.
An AMF webpage titled “Myths & Facts” addresses numerous anti-prediction market talking points that have made their way into the mainstream in 2026. The first section proclaims that prediction markets don’t allow insider trading on their apps; stating that the exchanges are federally regulated by the CFTC, identify account holders using KYC protocols, and run “continuous surveillance” to help protect market integrity.
Additionally, the AMF concludes that prediction markets are not the “Wild West,” referring to the framing that has been put forth by individuals and groups who are against the exchanges. Instead, the page cites federal licensing of prediction exchange activities along with their official categorization as swaps and trades.
The AMF designates the notion that sports-related contracts that are traded on prediction exchanges are simply sports betting by another name as a myth. “Sports event contracts are one slice of a broader universe that also includes economic indicators, weather, elections, and policy outcomes,” says the group. “More importantly, the structure is fundamentally different from a sportsbook. Regulated prediction markets do not act as the house.”
The provided text goes on to explain that the peer-to-peer trading activities that prediction markets offer use a commission-based business structure in which the exchanges themselves do not have a financial interest in the outcome of trades. This is one way that prediction apps, unlike online sportsbooks, can refrain from imposing transaction limits on winners, thereby catering to professional forecasters.
As of Monday evening, 8:00pm Eastern Time, the American for Fair Markets advocacy group has a YouTube channel with zero uploads, a Facebook page with 0 Followers, plus an ‘X’ account with 4 Followers. The official AMF website does not currently have a “partners” or “affiliates” page that displays which prediction exchanges (if all, some, or any) support its stated goals.
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