Election prediction markets are sites where you can buy and sell contracts based on the outcomes of real elections. Prediction markets have gone from only being accessible in the corners of the internet to being mainstream.
With prediction markets still relatively new to some people, how do you start finding the best site? Our experts have come up with a list of the top three prediction markets for elections - Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood. To help you get started, we will walk you through everything you need to know about these sites.
Prediction markets allow you to trade contracts on the outcomes of real-world events. In the context of elections, you can forecast outcomes such as the election winner, vote margin, and so on. We like to think of prediction markets as a combination of stock trading and backing your opinions financially. But it’s important to understand the distinct differences between these, too.
Instead of betting on the odds set by a bookmaker, the traders will influence the price. As more traders predict a ‘yes’ outcome, for example, the price will rise. But if more ‘no’ contracts are bought, the price will decrease. As you can see, the price will fluctuate in real-time, depending on the collective belief. With the prices changing constantly, you can also find opportunities to sell your contracts for a higher price than you paid, meaning that you do not need to stick around for the result.
Speaking of prices, the price reflects the implied probability. For instance, if you buy a ‘yes’ contract at $0.25, this represents a potential 25% chance of the event happening. If you get it right, you will get a $1 payout, giving you a profit of $0.75. When you buy a contract, you will be paired with another person who has bought the opposite contract. As such, trading requires an even number of traders. If you are not paired with someone, you will receive a full refund. In the interim, you will be charged a making fee to reserve your spot.
If you hear the term ‘election betting’, this is very different from election predictions. While you might find that some people interchange these terms, they are completely different. While there are similarities, there are important differences. If you place a bet, you are staking money on a specific outcome at odds that have been set by a bookmaker. These bets are made against the house, with which you are in direct competition with.
However, prediction markets are done via binary contracts that allow you to trade either ‘yes’ or ‘no’ contracts, depending on your forecast. For example: Will Candidate A win the election? The core difference between predictions and bets is how the prices are set. Additionally, prediction markets give you the option of buying and selling contracts, just like stock trading, instead of a fixed-odds system.
Unlike with betting, the prediction market site doesn’t take a chunk of the amount you spend on trading the contracts. Instead, prediction markets charge a making and taking fee. This fee is how prediction market sites make money. Every site has a different pricing structure, so make sure you review these before you start trading.
Now that you know what prediction markets are and how they work in the context of elections, let’s take a look at some of the common markets you will find.
This is quite self-explanatory and involves you buying or selling contracts on the winner of the election, so who gets elected into office. For example, “Who will win the US presidential election?” or “Will Candidate A win the vote?”
This is a fairly straightforward market and involves you trading contracts on a specific margin of the vote. For instance, “Will the popular vote margin be greater than 3.5?” or “Will the winner of Georgia win by more than 2%?”
Rather than who will win a state-wide election, this market focuses on specific states. For example, “Will Candidate B win Arizona?”
This market works in the same way as over/under markets, in the sense that you will predict whether the outcome will be higher or lower than a specific number. For example, “Will the election winner be decided by fewer than 40 votes?”
| Prediction Market Platform | Welcome Offer |
|---|---|
| 1. 🥇Kalshi
Kalshi Review | Kalshi Promo Code | $10 Bonus |
| 2. 🥈
Crypto.com Crypto.com Review | Crypto.com Promo Code | 100% up to $250 |
| 3. 🥉
Polymarket
Polymarket Review | Polymarket Promo Code | $10 Bonus |
| 4. 🎯
OG.com OG Prediction Market Review | OG Promo Code | up to $100 Bonus |
| 5. 🏈
FanDuel Predict FanDuel Predict Review | FanDuel Predict Promo Code | N/A |
| 6. 🐕
UnderDog Predict UnderDog Predict Review | UnderDog Predict Promo Code | No Bonus Available |
| 7. 🎟️
PrizePicks Predict
PrizePicks Predict Review | PrizePicks Predict Promo Code | No Bonus Available |
| 8. 🛒
Fanatics Markets
Fanatics Markets Review | Fanatics Markets Promo Code | up to 40% Rebate |
| 9. ₿
Coinbase Predictions
Coinbase Predictions Review | Coinbase Predictions Promo Code | Between $10 and $2,000 in BTC |
| 10. 👑 DraftKings Predicts (Review upcoming) | N/A |
| 11. 😴 Sleeper Markets (Review upcoming) | N/A |
| 12. 🐄 MooMoo
MooMoo Review | MooMoo Promo Code | No Bonus Available |
| 13. 🚀 ROLR
ROLR Review | ROLR Promo Code | N/A |
| 14. ♊ Gemini (Review upcoming) | N/A |
| 15. 🐂 WeBull (Review upcoming) | N/A |
| 16. 📈 Interactive Brokers (Review upcoming) | N/A |
| 17. ⚡ Novig (Review upcoming) | N/A |
| 18. 🔮 ProphetX (Review upcoming) | N/A |
| 19. 🦅 TruthPredict (Trump platform launch, on hold) | N/A |
If you have been looking into prediction markets for some time, you might remember that election prediction markets caught attention in 2024 for correctly predicting Trump’s victory. Since then, the best sites for political predictions have been getting widespread attention by keen traders, including Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood.
Generally speaking, prediction markets are far more accurate than polls. This is because polls grab a quick snapshot of a small pool of voters. However, traders at prediction markets have a big incentive to get the forecast right. With a financial incentive, traders use extensive research and knowledge to place more thoughtful predictions.
Additionally, prediction markets fluctuate in real-time to reflect the collective belief of traders. This is something that polls can’t do, unless you repeatedly poll the same pool of voters.
Prediction markets for election contracts have commonly been known to be more accurate at predicting the outcomes than polls. But with prediction markets continuing to gain popularity, the accuracy could fluctuate further.
Ready to learn all about our top three prediction markets for election trading? In no particular order, here’s an overview of the trading experience at these sites and an explanation of why they have landed in our top three:
Kalshi is a highly renowned prediction market, especially for political event contracts. You will find binary contracts that offer a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ outcome on a broad range of election markets, including election winners, vote margins, and scandals. Kalshi has a clear pricing structure, which outlines the making and taking fees so you know exactly what to expect before you start trading.
When we first landed on the site, we were impressed with its modern layout. The minimalist design ensures that you are not bombarded with any unnecessary information, while balancing all the core details you will need or want to know. Across the top of the screen, politics is the first prediction market you will encounter, because of its popularity and focus on the site.
A key feature we liked is the ‘For You’ page, where you will receive tailored recommendations on the latest markets that align with your previous activity. The ‘For You’ page will highlight the prices, yes/no percentages, and a real-time tracker so you can see the fluctuations unfold.
Polymarket is a crypto-focused prediction market that works through the Polygon network. While political events are one of the site’s focuses, you can explore a wide range of events, including sports, finance, crypto, and technology. The site couldn’t be easier to use and is one of the best prediction markets for beginners. Not only will you find a ‘How it works’ page that explains everything you will need to know, but the smart filters also help you move around with ease.
For instance, when you tap the Politics category, it will load a series of sub-categories, including All, Trump, US Election, NYC Mayor, and Global Elections. There’s also a handy search bar and favorites tab, so you are never far away from your favorite market.
Robinhood is a CFTC-regulated exchange that offers binary options for ‘yes’ and ‘no’ contracts, which pay out depending on the outcome of an event. Typically, the contracts will pay between $0.01 and $0.99. One of the biggest advantages of Robinhood is its availability. It’s currently available in all US states with no restrictions, thanks to the CFTC.
Robinhood provides a broad range of event categories, including politics, sports, and economics. When it comes to liquidity, Robinhood is one of the best prediction markets around. Its high volume of traders contributes to the price stability, paving the way for a positive experience. Furthermore, Robinhood offers a flat fee of $0.02, which is simpler than the variable system at other prediction markets. Here, you always know exactly what you will pay before you start trading.
Struggling to choose which prediction market will work the best for you? You don’t need to pick just the one, but here’s a helpful summary of what these sites do best.
To give you an idea of the types of markets you will encounter, here’s an overview of the different election markets we found at Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood:
| Kalshi |
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| Polymarket |
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| Robinhood |
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Now that you know a lot more about how political election markets work and have been introduced to the best prediction market sites right now, you might find some value in picking up some of our top tips.
Before you trade, you should always read the market rules. The rules contain important information on when you will get paid, any contract conditions, and how to dispute decisions. For example, Kalshi election predictions can often specify the exact way an outcome is determined.
The prices fluctuate in real-time to reflect the views of the traders. You might find opportunities to sell your contract at a higher price than you bought it for, securing a profit without waiting for the event outcome. It’s always worth keeping an eye on this, as you never know when the opportunity might arise.
In the USA, any profit you make from prediction markets is taxable income. You are responsible for declaring your taxable income, so make sure you obtain the correct forms and complete the submission in time.
While prediction markets are often more accurate than polls, they are not guaranteed outcomes. While they can be a strong signal for how an event might happen, there is always a chance that you will lose and your contract will be worthless.
Every site has a different fee and price structure, so you should always familiarize yourself with the fees before trading. For example, you are usually charged different fees depending on whether you are paired with another trader immediately or not.
Before buying or selling contracts on political outcomes, you should always follow the news for the latest happenings. Stay in the know by reading the news, watching the latest speeches, and so on. Making informed decisions will improve your chances of getting your predictions correct.
Before we wrap up this guide to election prediction markets, let’s take a closer look at some of the key pros and cons:
The bottom line is, there are some great prediction markets for trading contracts on political outcomes. Our top choices are Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood, which each bring a string of unique strengths and features. While Kalshi was the first prediction market in the US to get federally approved, Polymarket is ideal for anyone who prefers crypto prediction markets. On the other hand, Robinhood election trading is ideal for traders who want a fuss-free trading experience with a transparent pricing structure.
Either way, you can’t really go wrong with any of our recommended election prediction market sites, as they have been handpicked to offer the best experience possible. It all comes down to personal preference, so make sure you check our reviews on this page to make an informed decision. Once you have made your choice, you can follow the on-page links to register a new account.
It’s practically impossible for us to recommend just one prediction market for election trading, because they are all unique. However, we have narrowed our search down to three sites – Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood.
A political prediction market is when you trade contracts on the outcome of political events. In this case, this guide has been all about elections, which include forecasting election winners, vote margins, electoral college markets, and more.
No, you can never lose more than you spend on a contract. For example, if you buy a ‘yes’ contract for $0.50 and you lose, you simply lose the $0.50 you initially paid for the contract, as it’s now worthless.
Yes, prediction markets are available in all 50 states, regardless of the market category. Prediction markets are now federally approved, so they can be accessed right across the US.
You do not need any experience with trading to get involved but knowledge on the subject matter would be highly beneficial. Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood are ideal for beginners, so you can trade without any prior knowledge or experience, as long as you understand the risks.
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