Robinhood election markets allow you to make predictions on a wide choice of political events, from the White House to the Senate. But how does Robinhood work, are there any fees involved and is it right for you?
Robinhood is a prediction market site and uses an exchange model where users can buy, sell and trade ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ contracts. The site is available nationwide and offers a simple to use app for maximum convenience. In this guide, we’ll talk you through the election and political markets available, the costs involved and how you can get started.
Robinhood is one of a growing number of prediction market sites becoming popular in the US which allows users to trade contracts on whether real life events will take place. This includes sports, the economy and politics, including elections.
An offshoot of derivatives trading, Robinhood presents simple ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ event contracts with a specific outcome. So, ‘will the Jets win the Super Bowl in 2026?’ or, in the case of politics, ‘will JD Vance be elected as US President in a specific year?’
Prediction market sites, such as Robinhood, are classified as exchanges, not sportsbooks or betting sites. Robinhood is a CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) regulated brand and relies on Kalshi, another prediction market site, to facilitate its picks. Some states have raised concerns about prediction market sites, such as Robinhood, but there are no legal restrictions on its use.
Robinhood is a prediction market site where members can make ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ picks on a wide range of topics, including election results. This is not, and shouldn’t be understood as Robinhood election betting; instead you’ll buy and sell contracts based on whether you think an event will occur.
A typical pick is whether a Democrat will win the US election – Yes 68% / No 32%. The percentages equal the estimated probability of that event happening.
In this example, we’ll say you believe the answer will be ‘Yes’ and you purchase 10 contracts at $0.68 each, totalling $6.80. You’ll also pay Robinhood fees on each trade. There are then three possible outcomes:
| Outcome | Share result |
|---|---|
| 1. The Democrats win the election. | Each ‘Yes’ contract settles at $1, giving you a total profit of $3.20. |
| 2. The Democrats lose the election. | Each contract settles at $0 meaning you lose $6.20. |
| 3. You decide to sell your contracts before the event. | As the election draws nearer, your contracts reach a price of $0.75. You opt to sell your contracts early and secure a profit of $0.13 for each one, totalling $7.50 and a complete profit of $1.30. |
As well as Presidential elections in the US, the most popular market, you can make selections on a growing number of political events happening around the world.
At the moment, elections are not a large market at Robinhood but you’ll find that they are regularly included under the Politics category. Typically these focus on big election but, based on Robinhood event contracts in other markets, we expect more markets to be added soon, such as:
You can monitor the progress of your prediction through the Robinhood app. The desktop site is just for information at the moment so you’ll need to download the app to begin making your selections.
Within these categories, predictions can take a specific form:
If you’re new to Robinhood, it can take a bit of time to get your head around the unique prediction system. To help you get started, we’ve gathered up a few useful tips:
When you’re first starting out, it’s a good idea to keep your trades small. This will allow you to get a feel for the Robinhood site. When you are more experienced though, it’s always important to set yourself a budget.
Each contract at Robinhood has set trading hours, which are individual to that event. You can check the specific ‘Timeline’ on each event page to see when it’s open and the Robinhood election forecast for big events. Typically, the trading hours for most contracts are between 8:00 AM – 3:00 AM ET. There are no Robinhood odds to lock in for each event, as this is not a betting site, but it’s important to remember that the market price for each contract can shift a lot depending on volume and market moves.
Before making a pick on election markets at Robinhood, it’s important to understand how the fee structure works. Each time you buy a contract, you’ll pay a fee of $0.01 commission to Robinhood plus $0.01 to the exchange service. Therefore, if you’re buying contracts at $0.56, for example, their final price will be $0.58.
Residents of Maryland, Nevada and New Jersey aren’t able to use Robinhood to make predictions on sports markets but can join in with political markets, including election results. State restrictions can change so it’s worthwhile consulting our guides to check the details for your region.
Anyone with what could be deemed ‘insider knowledge’ of the event in question is not permitted to participate in event contracts at Robinhood. This means anyone associated with any campaigns, polling services or third-party opinion services won’t be able to use Robinhood to make election based predictions.
In order to make your picks at Robinhood, you’ll need to follow these steps. This is the process across all categories, including elections, sports and more:
Follow the links on this page to go to Robinhood. Then go to ‘Prediction Markets’. The Robinhood desktop site is a very useful space for new members and has lots of information on how the site works. In order to sign up though, you’ll need to download the Robinhood app.
In order to access the Robinhood Predictions market, you’ll require a derivatives account. This is easy to set up and should only take a few minutes to be approved
Head to the ‘Politics’ section to view the various Robinhood election markets
Once you’ve identified an election market you’d like to join, you can click to go to that individual event
Make your pick ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ and, if you haven’t got an account, you’ll be taken through the sign up process
You’ll be asked to supply a few personal details including full name, email address and date of birth
If a result isn’t available, for example if a recount is necessary or official results haven’t been released by the published contract end time, Robinhood has procedures in place. These procedures assess the outcome based on the latest data, including election polls, so Robinhood can settle contracts in the most accurate and fair way possible.
If the candidate you’ve chosen withdraws then that contract will automatically resolve at $0.
Prediction markets such as Robinhood are becoming extremely popular and elections are one of the most widely accessed categories. At the moment, markets at Robinhood are more focussed on big events, such as the next President, but the range is increasing exponentially as Robinhood grows its member base.
Robinhood offers an easy to use app, which is especially good for anyone already using the brand to invest. It’s also widely accessible and excellent for beginners. If you’d like to discover more about Robinhood, you can read through more of our guides on getting started and the markets available. Then, hit any of our links to go to the site.
No, Robinhood is a prediction market site that allows members to back event contracts based on ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ outcomes. Once the event has taken place, each winning contract is cashed out at $1. The contracts that don’t win are settled at $0. This shouldn’t be understood as betting but the option to use prediction market sites does open up a lot of possibilities compared to online sportsbooks, where placing real money wagers on elections is prohibited in many areas.
There’s a massive choice of political prediction markets at Robinhood, covering elections from all around the globe. Markets available in the US are limited currently but are expanding as Robinhood develops.
Yes, and the Robinhood sports contracts are extensive. In fact, they attract the most trades out of all of the categories at Robinhood. Depending on the time of year, you’ll find college and pro level football and basketball, as well as major leagues from baseball and hockey. There’s also a growing number of other sports being covered including soccer, tennis, F1 and golf.
No, once it’s made, your pick is final. However, it may be possible to exit by selling your contracts before the event takes place. Be aware that you may lose money doing this.
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