Currently, the best tennis prediction market sites in the US are Plus500, Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Gemini. These platforms all offer a broad selection of markets and competitive odds, while they're licensed and run generous bonus offers.
We'll explore each of these sites in more detail below. We'll also look at how tennis prediction markets work and offer some expert tips on how minimize risk, manage trades, and successfully predict outcomes.
We found that tennis features heavily at all sites for sports prediction markets. However, it’s also apparent that some brands cover the sport a little better than their rivals. Here’s our analysis of the four market leading tennis prediction sites.
| Tennis prediction market site | Typical tennis event contracts |
|---|---|
| Kalshi | Game winner, set winner, exact match score, total games, next match played, retirement, to win a Major this year, who will win more Majors this year, partnership deals, ATP and WTA rankings |
| Polymarket | Moneyline, set handicap, total sets, total games, completed match, set winner, combos, tournament winner, reach a particular round, longest match, violate dress code, receive a code violation |
| Crypto.com | Match winner, tournament winner, to win a tournament this year |
| Plus500 | Match winner, set handicaps and totals, correct score, futures |
We’ll start with Plus500, which is arguably the best tennis prediction market site for beginners. The platform is home to a large number of detailed informational guides, covering basic and intermediate prediction market factors such as liquidity, order book layout, and the relationship between price and implied probability.
The Plus500 site also has a simple and intuitive layout, which makes it easy to analyze markets in real-time and make informed selections.
When you make your first deposit at Plus500, you can also claim one of two available bonuses. One requires you to deposit and trade $10 on prediction markets, at which point you’ll unlock $20 in bonus funds. There’s also a layered, higher value offer aimed at futures traders, but this requires a minimum opt-in of $500. If you opt into the second bonus, note that some prediction market futures may count towards the bonus.
Unfortunately, Plus500 applies a 1.75% fee to withdrawals across all payment methods. This is disappointing, while the site’s maximum withdrawal limit is also capped at $150.
Next up is Kalshi, which is one of the market leading prediction platforms stateside and can be trusted to give you a comprehensive coverage of all tennis. You can trade on individual matches both prematch and live, and there will be markets for things like game winner, set winner, total games played and even the exact match score.
Such a comprehensive coverage also applies to Kalshi’s futures where you can do things like predict whether someone like Iga Swiatek will win a major this year, or even whether Jannick Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz wins more majors in the year.
Overall, Kalshi has the largest and most diverse selection of tennis prediction markets, across both individual matches and futures.
This includes some of the more unusual tennis markets we’ve seen in the US market. These let you make your predictions on things like whether Novak Djokovic will retire this year, who’ll top the ATP or WTP rankings, or even who Ben Shelton’s next partnership deal will be with. Well worth a look for all serious and casual tennis fans alike.
Polymarket: Pros and Cons
We should start by noting that Polymarket loves to put on lots of interesting combos for tennis. This is where you combine different predictions together to create one big trade. For example, you could predict that Alexander Zverev, Jannick Sinner and Karolina Muchova all win their first sets in their next Wimbledon games.
This is part of a strategic approach by the platform, which is home to significant market depth and novelty picks. For example, you can make your predictions here on whether someone will violate Wimbledon’s dress code this summer, or even whether a certain player like Nick Kyrgios receives a code violation.
You can even predict what the longest match at a particular Grand Slam will be, using your analysis of individual players, matchups and the surface.
Elsewhere you will find all of the regular tennis markets you’d expect such as trade for the game moneyline, set handicap, total sets and total games. There’s also a solid range of futures like tournament winner, whether a certain player will reach a particular round and so on.
This world-famous crypto exchange recently moved into the realm of prediction markets, and it’s great to discover that Crypto.com lets you trade a variety of tennis markets. You will find both prematch and live trades for all of the biggest tournaments and find it pretty easy to make your predictions on who will be the match winner and so on.
Crypto.com is also great for tennis futures trading with plenty of liquidity for all of the Grand Slam tournament winner predictions. We also liked how the brand even lets you predict whether Serena Williams will win a WTA tournament this year.
There might not be some of the more unusual tennis prediction markets featured here, but there’s more than enough for casual fans of the sport. Worth a look if you are new to the prediction markets phenomenon.
To this end, you can earn up to $300 in Cronos (CRO) when you register with the brand. This is the platform’s native crypto token, while the offer is valid for 90 days after signup.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
So why should you trade tennis event contracts, and not experiment with motor racing predictions and events at one of our recommended F1 prediction market sites? Here are some of the pros and cons of engaging with tennis prediction markets:
A tennis prediction market lets you trade a binary outcome relating to a particular game, event, or futures contract. You can buy “Yes” or “No” shares in a particular outcome (such as Jannik Sinner to win the 2027 Australian Open), trading directly via a peer-to-peer exchange. Here are some other examples of tennis prediction market trades:
When you browse a contract, each binary outcome will be priced somewhere between $0.01 and $0.99. There’s a direct correlation between price and probability, so more expensive traders have a greater chance of delivering a payout.
If you buy and hold shares in an outcome that occurs, each one will be paid out at $1.00. If you adopt the same strategy and your prediction fails, you’ll return nothing and your initial stake (alongside any trading fees) will be lost. You can also sell open positions back to the market if there’s enough liquidity, but we’ll cover this later in the guide).
Grand Slam events dominate tennis prediction markets. So, let’s say that you’re all signed up at a site and wanted to trade matches at the 2027 Australian Open next January. More specifically, you want to trade the outcome when two-time Slam winner Alexander Zverev meets veteran Grigor Dimitrov in the opening rounds. The pricing is as follows:
In this case, Zverev is the clear favorite and has an 80% chance of triumphing. Conversely, Dimitrov is the underdog, and his price implies a win probability of just 20%. If your analysis shows that Zverev’s true win probability is close to or higher than 80%, you can buy “Yes” shares, hold until settlement, and potentially bank a 20% return in a short timeframe.
Attempting to buy and sell Zverev shares may be tricky at this starting price. There’s little potential upside here, so you could be lured into a low liquidity trap if this is your strategy. As we’ve touched on, if you buy and hold a “Yes” contract and the German loses, your initial investment will be lost in full.
However, Dimitrov also remains a seasoned player, and one who has performed well against the top tennis seeds throughout his career. He’s also capable of starting fast, while Zverev has been knock to struggle early on during tournaments. So, you could trade “Yes” on Dimitrov winning at $0.20, and cash out at a higher price once the Bulgarian moves into an early lead.
You should find that most prediction market sites will give you many different kinds of event contracts for each tennis match or tournament. Here are just some of the most common tennis predictions that you’ll be able to make:
For further context, let’s say that you wanted to make your predictions about who would win the Womens’ Singles tournament at the US Open. Here’s what you’d need to do:
Tap on any of the links for the recommended prediction market sites in the banners of this page to launch their website from your web browser
Create your customer account by filling in the form with the required information such as your name, email, date of birth and home address
Verify your account by clicking on any verification links and completing the KYC requirements
Add some funds to your account by making a deposit with one of the available payment methods
Navigate to the Tennis tab in the prediction markets lobby
Browse to the US Open section and click on the tab that says something like US Open Womens’ Singles Champion
See which of the event contracts for players like Aryna Salalenka, Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula to win matches your own predictions
Click on that event contract and select how many of the contracts you want to purchase
Complete your trade
From here you should see that the event contract has been added to your portfolio and you can track its price movement in real-time, as it adjusts to the market fluctuations. Remember, you’ll be able to trade your contract at any time or hang in until the event has been settled.
No one is going to be able to actually predict what’s going to happen in a game of tennis, as outcomes are determined by a number of variables that are hard to quantify. However, you can take steps to minimize risk and maximize your returns when engaging with tennis prediction markets. These include
You may have noticed that certain prediction markets brands are now starting to feature combos for tennis, including Polymarket. Although this allows you to make multiple predictions on the same trade (similar to sportsbook parlays), it’s important to note that all of your picks have to succeed for your combos to be correct. This has a direct impact on probability and exposes you to higher levels of risk. So, only including clear favorites in your combo selections is the best strategy here.
Lots of prediction market sites will also let you trade live on tennis matches that are already underway. After all, the stop-start nature of tennis is perfect for this kind of live trading, and it can make for a hugely effective way to make your predictions. This certainly helps to create value when backing favorites or looking to leverage arbitrage opportunities in-play. Just remember that bankroll management is key here, as live trading exposes you to a higher potential volume of orders.
All tennis players will have their favorite tournaments and court surfaces, and this is something that should be factored in when making your predictions. After all, just because a player is at number one in the rankings doesn’t mean that they are going to master every kind of surface like grass, clay, and hard courts. So be sure to do your research into how each player has performed at the tournament in question and adjust your trades accordingly. Analyze each player’s calendar and career record on the relevant surface before making your trades, too.
It’s fair to say that there can be something of a herd mentality at many prediction market sites. This is understandable, as prediction market sites operate as peer-to-peer exchanges and expose you to trading volume data and sentiment. You can even read comments from users and learn that some trades are having particular success. However, while sentiment and market overreactions can drive down prices and create market opportunities, it’s better to inform your picks with data analysis, foundational knowledge, and extensive research.
Finally, it’s important to remember that you can continue to trade open positions prior to market settlement. This enables you to lock in early profits and reduce your exposure to risk, or limit losses in instances where markets turn against you. You can even sell a percentage of your shares, allowing you to recoup your investment or secure a nominal return while leaving a small position open. This strategy enables you to potential profit from the same position again in the future.
In this guide, we’ve identified Plus500, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com as the best tennis prediction sites. Each of these platforms offers excellent tennis event coverage and market depth, although they also have unique pros and cons and different fee structures.
It’s therefore important to compare our recommended sites independently. This enables you to understand precisely what each one has to offer and make the best selection for you.
Just remember that prediction market trading is inherently risk, and this is especially true when predicting outcomes in sports such as tennis. So make sure that when you tap on any of the links for the approved tennis prediction market sites in the banners of this page to sign up, you create a bankroll and set your limits prior to trading.
It depends on who you are and what you are wanting to predict. Kalshi probably has the best market depth, while Polymarket unlocks more unusual trades. Plus500 and Crypto.com offer viable options for beginners, with the former offering two separate bonuses to new players.
You can download each of the prediction market apps featured in the banners of this page from the App Store and Google Play. Just remember to check this guide to prediction market apps to make sure that you’re using the best possible app for your device. Also, be sure to check that your preferred app is legal in your state.
This remains highly likely, as most prediction market brands are available in more than 40 states across the nation. Plus500 is active in 45+ jurisdictions. Just note that certain brands are limited in their availability. For example, you cannot trade sports contracts at Crypto.com in the states of New York, Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Illinois.
That totally depends on the individual match or tournament, alongside your own strategy and appetite for risk. Trading futures can be particularly effective ahead of Grand Slams, as the large and competitive field keeps “Yes” prices down. This lets you back favorites while their prices are low, before selling your position once they’ve advanced to the latter stages.
In most states, you’ll have to be at least 18 years or older to sign up to any prediction markets site. This means that you’ll be expected to verify your identity with some government-issued photo ID and a proof of address.
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