Welcome to our guide that tells you everything you need to know about tennis prediction markets. Well worth a look if you fancy seeing what all of the hype is about.
You’ll get an introduction to prediction markets and see how this applies to tennis. We’ll highlight three of the best brands for making your predictions and some of the markets you can trade. So that whether you want to predict the US Open winner or even who’ll get knocked out of Wimbledon, you can do it all with confidence.
Prediction markets are big news right now, and it’s great to find that they apply to tennis. So a tennis prediction market is where you make a prediction about something that’s going to happen in a tennis match or tournament, and then back up this prediction by purchasing the associated event contract.
These event contracts are put on by prediction markets sites, and you’ll be buying them and trading them with other customers on the site. Here are some examples of the tennis event contracts that you might come across:
Each of these contracts will be priced somewhere between $0.01 and $0.99, and you will find that the more expensive contracts are those that are more likely to win. This is because if your contract proves to be correct when the event settles, it can be redeemed at $1.00. As a result, you will get more returns from winning riskier contracts.
So let’s put this theory into action and see how you might make your predictions and trade event contracts on a massive WImbledon semi-final between Novak Djokovic and Jannick Sinner.
You went to one of the prediction markets sites listed in the banners of this page and found the following event contracts for the game:
This shows that people at the prediction markets site think that Sinner is the clear favorite and has an 80% chance of winning. In contrast, Djokovic is the underdog with a perceived chance of winning of just 20%. By doing a little research, you came to the conclusion that you think that Djokovic could cause an upset here and win the game. So you bought a contract for Djokovic to win at $0.20.
From here, you settled down to watch the game and saw Djokovic getting beaten in straight sets. This meant that your contract was worth nothing and you would have lost your money.
In contrast, if you’d bought the contract for Sinner to win, you’d have made a profit of $0.20 as the correct contract would have been redeemed at a value of $1.00. Just note that there are usually commission fees of around $0.02 for each trade you make.
You should find that most prediction markets sites will give you many different kinds of event contracts for each tennis match and tournament. Here are just some of the most common tennis predictions that you’ll be able to make:
So why should you trade tennis event contracts and not try some motor racing predictions at one of those F1 prediction market sites? Well here are the key reasons to stick with tennis:
We found that tennis features heavily at all sites for sports prediction markets, but also that some brands cover the sport a little better than their rivals. So here are three of our favorites to start you off:
| Tennis prediction market site | Typical tennis event contracts |
|---|---|
| Kalshi | Game winner, set winner, exact match score, total games, next match played, retirement, to win a Major this year, who will win more Majors this year, partnership deals, ATP and WTA rankings, |
| Polymarket | Moneyline, set handicap, total sets, total games, completed match, set winner, combos, tournament winner, reach a particular round, longest match, violate dress code, receive a code violation |
| Crypto.com | Match winner, tournament winner, to win a tournament this year |
We may as well begin with the market-leading brand, and Kalshi can be trusted to give you a comprehensive coverage of all tennis. You can trade on individual matches both prematch and live, and there will be markets for things like game winner, set winner, total games played and even the exact match score.
Such a comprehensive coverage also applies to Kalshi’s futures where you can do things like predict whether someone like Iga Swiatek will win a major this year, or even whether Jannick Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz wins more majors in the year.
We also liked some of the more unusual tennis markets at Kalshi. These let you make your predictions on things like whether Novak Djokovic will retire this year, who’ll top the ATP or WTP rankings, or even who Ben Shelton’s next partnership deal will be with. Well worth a look for all serious tennis fans.
We should start by noting that Polymarket loves to put on lots of interesting combos for tennis. This is where you combine different predictions together to create one big trade. For example, you could predict that Alexander Zverev, Jannick Sinner and Karolina Muchova all win their first sets in their next Wimbledon games.
Polymarket also serves up plenty of interesting markets that’ll test your love of tennis. For example, you can make your predictions here on whether someone will violate Wimbledon’s dress code this summer, or even whether a certain player like Nick Kyrgios receives a code violation. You can even predict what the longest match at a particular Grand Slam will be.
Elsewhere you will find all of the regular tennis markets you’d expect such as trade for the game moneyline, set handicap, total sets and total games. There’s also a solid range of futures like tournament winner, whether a certain player will reach a particular round and so on.
This world-famous crypto exchange recently moved into the realm of prediction markets and it’s great to find that Crypto.com lets you trade a variety of tennis markets. You will find both prematch and live trades for all of the biggest tournaments and find it pretty easy to make your predictions on who will be the match winner and so on.
Crypto.com is also great for tennis futures trading with plenty of liquidity for all of the Grand Slam tournament winner predictions. We also liked how the brand even lets you predict whether Serena Williams will win a WTA tournament this year.
There might not be some of the more unusual tennis prediction markets featured here, but there’s more than enough for casual fans of the sport. Worth a look if you are new to the prediction markets phenomenon.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
So let’s say that you wanted to make your predictions about who would win the Womens’ Singles tournament at the US Open. Here’s what you’d need to do:
Tap on any of the links for the recommended prediction market sites in the banners of this page to launch their website from your web browser
Create your customer account by filling in the form with the required information such as your name, email, date of birth and home address
Verify your account by clicking on any verification links and completing the KYC requirements
Add some funds to your account by making a deposit with one of the available payment methods
Navigate to the Tennis tab in the prediction markets lobby
Browse to the US Open section and click on the tab that says something like US Open Womens’ Singles Champion
See which of the event contracts for players like Aryna Salalenka, Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula to win matches your own predictions
Click on that event contract and select how many of the contracts you want to purchase
Complete your trade
From here you should see that the event contract has been added to your portfolio and you can track its price movement in real-time as it adjusts to the market fluctuations. Note that you’ll be able to trade your contract at any time or hang in until the event has been settled.
No one is going to be able to actually predict what’s going to happen in a game of tennis, but we think that the follow pointers should be remembered when trading prediction markets for this sport:
You may have noticed that certain prediction markets brands are now starting to feature combos for tennis. These can be a lot of fun as they will require you to make your prediction on more than one game, and it can all add up to give you some serious entertainment as well as the chance of making some significant returns. Just note that all of the predictions have to succeed for your combo to be correct, and therefore it can be very risky. So only include clear favorites in your combo for the best way to trade.
Lots of prediction markets sites will also let you trade live on tennis matches that are already underway. After all, the stop-start nature of tennis is perfect for this kind of live trading, and it can make for a hugely enjoyable way to make your predictions. Just be careful in how you tackle this, as it can be all too easy to get carried away, and also the price of those contracts will be fluctuating wildly.
All tennis players will have their favorite tournaments and court surfaces, and this is something that should be factored in when making your predictions. After all, just because a player is at number one in the rankings doesn’t mean that they are going to master every kind of surface like grass, clay and so on. So be sure to do your research into how each player has performed at the tournament in question and adjust your trades accordingly.
It’s fair to say that there can be something of a herd mentality at many prediction markets sites. Much of this can be down to how you can sometimes see how other people are trading and even read the comments sections to see how much success they are having with their trades. While all of this can be interesting, it’s probably best to be ignored when it comes to making your tennis predictions. After all, you will want to avoid following the crowd and spending more than you initially meant too, and instead you should set your budgets and do your own research.
Finally, we just have to remind you of the basic fact that prediction markets trading is risky and therefore you should set sensible limits on how much you trade and how many event contracts you purchase. The good news is that most of our recommended prediction markets brands will give you access to a variety of responsible trading tools. These can be used to keep your trading under control, but ultimately it’s up to you to be realistic with how you trade and know when to walk away when things aren’t going well.
This guide has revealed that trading tennis prediction markets is actually pretty simple, and it’s something that you can do all over the nation. As a result, you’ll get a safe and fair way to make your predictions on anything from who’ll win the Australian Open to who’ll win an individual game on the WTA tour.
Just remember that prediction markets trading is risky by nature, and this is especially true when it comes to sports like tennis. So make sure that you tap on any of the links for the approved tennis prediction markets sites in the banners of this page to sign up, set your limits and start trading.
You can download each of the prediction market apps featured in the banners of this page from the App Store and Google Play. Just remember to check this guide to prediction market apps to make sure that you’re using the best possible app for your device.
It depends on who you are and what you are wanting to predict. Kalshi is probably the best all-rounder, Polymarket is worth a look for some of the more unusual trades, while Crypto.com could be good for trading newbies.
It’s highly likely as most prediction markets brands are available in all 50 states across the nation. Just note that certain brands are limited in their availability. For example, you cannot trade sports contracts at Crypto.com in the states of New York, Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Illinois.
That totally depends on the individual match or tournament. We’d recommend those markets that are likely to win, while offering the potential for a decent return. Somewhere between 60 and 70% is usually the sweet spot for us as it keeps things nice and interesting.
Expect to have to be at least 18 years old to sign up to any prediction markets site. This means that you’ll be expected to verify your identity with some government-issued photo ID.
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