We recommend several UFC prediction market sites, including Kalshi, Polymarket, Crytpo.com, and Underdog. These platforms all offer deep fight markets and futures, alongside niche props, generous welcome offers, and wide availability throughout the US.
Below, you can learn more about these prediction market sites and which one is right for you. We'll also appraise the most common UFC prediction markets and offer some tips on how to leverage these successfully.
We’ve reviewed a number of sports prediction market sites to see which ones offer the best coverage of the UFC. Here’s some analysis of our findings and the best brands for trading UFC events and contracts.
| UFC prediction market site | Typical UFC event contracts |
|---|---|
| Kalshi | Fight winner, title holder at end of year, to fight again before next year, what will the announcers say? |
| Polymarket | Combos, moneyline, totals, go the distance, won by KO/TKO?, won by submission, fight next?, champion by end of year |
| Crypto.com | Fight-winner, method of victory, round totals |
This is the largest prediction markets brand in the US, and it’s little surprise to find that Kalshi would have deep and high quality coverage of the UFC.
You’ll be able to trade markets on every bout in each Fight Night, with high profile showdowns like the recent matchup between Dricus Du Plessis and Kamaru Usman attracting over $100,000 in trading volume incredibly quickly. This highlights Kalshi’s high volumes and increased levels of liquidity compared to rival sites.
Kalshi also serves up plenty of futures trades for things like whether Sean Strickland can be the middleweight titleholder by the end of the year. These markets tend to generate the most volume, making it much easier to sell your position profitably prior to settlement.
More unusual markets include options to predict when Conor McGregor will fight again, creating a diverse range of contracts overall. This remains the market leading prediction site in the US and one that caters deliberately to UFC fans.
Another market leader alongside Kalshi, Polymarket offers sports and UFC contracts in more than 40 US states at the time of writing. This platform also offers deep UFC markets and trades, including a diverse selection of props and novelty picks.
Not only will you be able to predict the fight winner, for example, but there will also be event markets for things like totals, the method of victory, or even whether the fight will go the distance. You can also include multiple picks in a “Combo” trade at Polymarket.
Although this can unlock significant returns, it also increases your chances of losing as each one of your picks will have to be successful.
You should also note that Polymarket has some interesting props trades. These include event contracts for who Petr Yan will fight next, and who will become a UFC champion by the end of the year. So, there’s a large range of markets to review and trade here.
You’ll already know that this is one of the biggest crypto exchanges on the planet, and it’s great to find that Crypto.com has also made the move into prediction markets. The site features event contracts for all major sports, and you’ll find a solid range of trades for each Fight Night.
While Crypto.com might not offer some of the more obscure UFC markets, each fight will let you make your trades on the overall winner, the method of victory, and the total round contested (which are expressed as over/under markets).
This platform also offers an intuitive and simple interface, which is easy for beginners to navigate freely. As a new customer, you’re also eligible to receive up to $300 in the site’s native crypto token CRO.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
So why trade event contracts for the UFC and not try something else like boxing or WWE prediction market sites? Here are the key pros and cons of trading on the UFC:
While all of these prediction markets brands will have their unique features, markets, and fee structures, the registration process remains largely unchanged across each one. So, here’s a brief walkthrough of how you can go from registering your first account to successfully executing a UFC prediction trade:
First, pick any of the recommended prediction markets sites in the banners of this page. Then, click on the relevant link to launch their website
Next, you’ll have to create your account. This usually requires you to tap on a Sign Up or Register link and then fill in the registration form with personal information such as your name, email, date of birth, and mobile number. You’ll also have to confirm your state and physical address
Once submitted, you should be able to log into your account and then complete the verification process. This usually requires you to click on a link sent to your mobile or email, and you’ll have to send in a scan of your passport or driver’s license
To make a deposit, use a debit card, ewallet, bank transfer or even an eligible cryptocurrency. Note that many sites now prohibit the use of credit cards
From here, you’ll be able to go to the site lobby and then click on the Sports tab. Then tap the UFC or MMA icon
This should open up a page where you’ll be able to browse all of the various event contacts. Note that there may be tabs that’ll allow you to filter your view according to fights, futures, and markets
Now, click on the event contract that matches your prediction, and select how many “Yes” or “No” shares you’d like to buy. Then, execute your trade
From here, you will see that the event contacts have been added to your account and you can track price fluctuations over time. Remember you can trade your contract at any time or wait until the event has been settled.
Prediction market trades are executed via peer-to-peer exchanges, across categories such as sports, politics, culture, entertainment, and climate. As we’ve touched on, you’ll find a number of UFC event contracts when logged into your account, including the following examples currently live on Kalshi:
All event contract outcomes are priced somewhere between $0.01 and $0.99. The trade price correlates directly to the probability of an outcome occurring. So, outcomes with a higher share price are more likely to occur, whereas lower value contracts have a smaller implied probability value.
If you purchase and hold one of these contracts and the market resolves in your favor, each share will be paid out at $1.00. If your position loses, the shares are settled at $0.00. Remember there may also be negligible trading fees to play, while you’re free to sell your contract at any time (demand and liquidity permitting).
To provide further context, let’s say that you wanted to trade the upcoming UFC 331 bout between Joshua Van and Alexandre Pantoja. Here’s a breakdown of how you might trade this event.
It’s always fascinating to see just how many different kinds of trades you can make on the UFC. Such coverage will vary depending on the site you are using, but you should expect to see at least a few of the following trading options:
Making your UFC predictions is far from straightforward and fraught with risk. However, we believe that the following tips should help you to minimize risk and maximize your potential returns:
The first thing that you’ll want to do is create a manageable bankroll. This should be based on an amount you can afford to lose, and dictate the size of your individual trading positions. Then, use the prediction market site’s responsible trading tools to set limits on your deposits. Some sites also allow you to set loss limits that automatically close losing positions at a predetermined point.
Every UFC trade that you execute should be well-informed and based largely on data analysis. The key is to identify which datasets are most relevant to your chosen market. For example, you should study each fighter’s style and career results to determine the most likely outcome and method of victory in a bout. Although you can inform trades in part using sentiment and market volume, this works best in instances when you’re capitalizing on market overreactions or targeting underpriced outcomes.
Buying your UFC event contract is only half of the process, and it’s crucial that you track the value of your “Yes” or “No” shares in real-time. If the value of your position increases markedly, you might be tempted to sell and lock in an early profit before the market resolves. Conversely, if a market begins to turn against you and your share value tanks, you can manually sell your position (liquidity allowing) and minimize losses.
Ultimately, it’s often best to focus on your favorite fighters and preferred markets. Targeting fighters that you know helps you identify the best value markets and contracts, including less common examples such as the method of victory. Some markets also offer more value than others in UFC event contracts, such as picking a fight winner or a contender to win a specific title.
Finally, it’s important to remember that you retain significant control over your capital when trading UFC prediction markets. Not only can you sell your position prior to settlement, for example, but it’s also possible to offload a percentage of your shares as a way of covering your initial stake. You can then leave the remainder of your shares riding on the final outcome.
A number of the best prediction markets sites offer UFC event trading. These include Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, each of which combine impressive market depth with welcome offers and widespread availability throughout the US.
We’re happy to recommend all of these platforms. However, I’d encourage you to compare them all independently, so that you can select the one that best suits your preferences and trading style.
It’s also important to understand the responsible trading tools and fee structures available at a site before registering. This helps you to safeguard your capital in the best possible way. Once you’ve made your selection, click on any of the links to the recommended prediction market sites in the banners of this page and register for an account.
All of the prediction market apps listed in the banners of this page can be downloaded from Google Play and the App Store. Just tap on the link for the brand that you want to trade at, and then follow the links to download the app for free to your device. Note that some prediction market platforms only access through an app.
This depends on your personal preference and trading style, but I recommend Kalshi for market depth, Polymarket for niche and diverse contracts, and Crypto.com for crytpocurrency acceptance. The latter is also a beginner-friendly site with a generous welcome bonus.
You will typically have to be at least 18 years old to trade UFC and similar prediction markets in the US. In most cases, you’ll also have to verify your identity using a form of government-issued photo ID before you can start trading. A proof of address may also be required.
That entirely depends on your chosen fight or division. However, we’d recommend trading simplistic markets that offer competitive odds, such as individual fights and future title winners. These markets create greater flexibility and make it easier to sell an open position prior to resolution.
In most cases, yes. All of our recommended UFC prediction market sites are active in 40+ US states at the time of writing, with most accepting federal regulation. Just note that there are a few exceptions, with Crypto.com prohibited from offering sports contracts in the states of Arizona, New York, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Illinois.
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