This guide will tell you everything that you could possibly want to know about UFC prediction markets. What they are, where to trade them, it’s all here.
We’ll begin by giving you some solid examples of how you can trade various prediction markets for the UFC and show you three of the best sites for doing this. Plus with handy walkthrough guides for using these sites and even some expert tips for making your predictions, you’ll have all you need to get started.
We realize that you might be new to the whole prediction markets concept, so let’s give you a brief overview of what it’s all about and how it relates to the UFC.
So, prediction markets are sites and apps that let you trade event contracts on real-world events like sports, politics, culture and so on. You sign up to these sites, make a deposit and then use those funds to buy an event contact that matches your prediction. So, in the case of the UFC, you might see event contracts for things like the following:
These event contracts would be priced somewhere between $0.01 and $0.99. The more expensive contracts are those that are more likely to be correct. Conversely, the cheaper contracts would be those less likely to come true.
You will purchase one of these contracts, and then if your prediction turns out to be correct when the event settles, your contract can be redeemed at a value of $1.00. Just note that there will be some negligible trading fees to play, and that you are free to sell your contract at any time.
Let’s give you a solid example of how you might actually trade prediction markets on the UFC. There was a massive showdown between Kamara Usman to beat Dricus Du Plessis coming up, and you thought that Du Plessis was sure to win. So to trade event contracts on this prediction, you would do the following:
Just note that if Du Plessis had lost the bout, your contract would have been rendered worthless and you would have made a loss.
It’s always fascinating to see just how many different kinds of trades you can make on the UFC. Such coverage will vary according to the site you are using, but you should expect to see at least a few of the following trading options:
So why trade event contracts for the UFC and not try something else like those WWE prediction market sites? Well here are the key pros and cons of trading on the UFC:
We’ve taken a good look around the current range of sports prediction market sites to see who has the best coverage of the UFC. Here are the three best brands in terms of their UFC event markets and overall performance:
| UFC prediction market site | Typical UFC event contracts |
|---|---|
| Kalshi | Fight winner, title holder at end of year, to fight again before next year, what will the announcers say? |
| Polymarket | Combos, moneyline, totals, go the distance, won by KO/TKO?, won by submission, fight next?, champion by end of year, |
| Crypto.com | Fight-winner |
This is the largest prediction markets brand in the US, and it’s little surprise to find that Kalshi would have quality coverage of the UFC. You’ll be able to trade markets on every bout in each Fight Night, and the fact that the upcoming showdown between Du Plessis and Usman has over $100,000 traded so far shows that you’ll always get plenty of liquidity for your trades.
Kalshi will also serve up plenty of futures trades for things like whether Sean Strickland can be the middleweight titleholder by the end of the year. Other interesting markets include options to predict when Conor McGregor will fight again and so on. A great all-rounder that should be able to meet the needs of all UFC fans.
You can’t really talk about Kalshi without also discussing Polymarket as these two brands completely dominate the prediction markets domain in the US. So it’s great to see that Polymarket has extensive coverage of the UFC world, with all manner of trades available for each fight.
Not only will you be able to predict the fight winner, but there will also be event markets for things like totals, whether the fight will be won by KO or TKO, or even whether the fight will go the distance. Note that all of these can be nicely wrapped up into a Combo where you have more than one prediction and they all have to win for you to get some potentially significant returns.
We should also note that Polymarket has some pretty interesting props trades. These include event contracts for who Petr Yan will fight next, and who will become a UFC champion by the end of the year. Plenty of talking points here.
You’ll already know that this is one of the biggest crypto exchanges on the planet, and it’s great to find that Crypto.com has also made the move into prediction markets. The site features event contracts for all major sports, and you’ll find a solid range of trades for each Fight Night.
While Crypto.com might not offer some of the more obscure UFC markets, each fight will let you make your trades on the overall winner and so on. Everything else is as it should be with a nicely user-friendly site that makes it a good choice for anyone new to the concept of prediction markets.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
While all of these prediction markets brands will have their unique features and markets, you should find that they work in a similar manner. So here’s a quick walkthrough of how you can go from registering your first account to seeing your first UFC prediction successfully come home:
First of all, pick any of the recommended prediction markets sites in the banners of this page and then click on the relevant link to launch their website from the browser of your smartphone, tablet or computer
Next, you will have to create your account. This usually requires you to tap on a Sign Up or Register link and then fill in the registration form with some pretty standard personal information such as your name, email, date of birth, home address and mobile number
Once submitted, you should be able to log into your account and then complete the verification process. This usually requires you to click on a link sent to your mobile or email, and you’ll probably have to send in a scan of your passport or driver’s license
Now you will want to add some funds to your account, and you will typically be able to do this via your card, ewallet, bank transfer or even a cryptocurrency
From here you’ll be able to go to the site lobby and then click on the Sports tab and then the UFC or MMC icon
This should open up a page where you’ll be able to browse all of the various event contacts. Note that there may be tabs that’ll allow you to filter your view according to fights, futures and so on
Once you’ve found what you are looking for, you can click on the link that’ll take you to the trading page. This should show you the various event contracts you can trade along with details for their prices, a graph showing recent price movements, trading rules and so on.
Now you can click on the event contract that matches your prediction, and then select how many of that contract you wish to purchase and execute your trade
From here, you will see that the event contacts have been added to your account and you can now watch how their price fluctuates according to market conditions and what happens in the UFC world. Remember you can trade your contract at any time or wait until the event has been settled.
Making your UFC predictions is rarely simple, but we believe that the following tips should help you avoid making too many newbie mistakes when you trade:
The first thing that you want to do is to set a budget and stick to it. This means thinking about how much money you would be happy losing, and then using the prediction market site’s responsible trading tools to set limits on your deposits. This should ensure that any losses don’t hurt too much, regardless of what happens in the octagon.
It can be all too easy to get caught up in the sheer drama of the UFC, and this is why you will need to be careful to do your own unbiased research. This means being wary about what you read in the comments sections of the prediction markets sites, and instead doing your own research about things like injuries, recent form, previous head-to-head records and so on. Doing so should ensure that you don’t just follow the crowd, and instead make your predictions on solid statistical fact.
Buying your UFC event contract is only half of the process, and you will need to be careful to watch the price movements of your contract like a hawk. After all, all it can take is for some injury news about your chosen fighter to hit the headlines to cause your contract’s value to sink like a stone. So be ready to trade your contract early either to lock in a profit or stop things from going too bad.
Finally, it’s often best to focus on your favorite fighters rather than everyone at Fight Night. Doing so should give you an advantage when it comes to exploring some of the more unique markets like method of victory. After all, you will be trading against other people, and you’ll hope that you have more expertise than they do.
By now you will understand that the UFC features at all of the best prediction markets sites and that you’ll get a great way to trade on the action. This means that you’ll be able to make your predictions on anything from whether Islam Makhachev wins his next fight to whether Justin Gaethje can retain his lightweight title.
Of course, you have to remember that literally anything can happen in the octagon, and therefore you’ll need to be careful to use whatever responsible trading tools are available to keep your trades in check. But as long as you remember that, you should be good to click on any of the links for the recommended prediction markets sites in the banners of this page to register your account and start trading.
All of the prediction market apps listed in the banners of this page can be downloaded from Google Play and the App Store. Just tap on the link for the brand that you want to trade at, and then follow the links to download the app for free to your device.
It depends on personal preference really, but we’d recommend Kalshi for overall performance, while Polymarket is also worth a look if you want access to some more diverse UFC markets. If you’re new to prediction markets, we’d also recommend Crypto.com for giving you a user-friendly way to trade some standard UFC event contracts.
You will usually have to be at least 18 years old to trade any kind of prediction markets in the US. So except to have to verify your identity some kind of government-issued photo ID before you can start trading.
That entirely depends on the fight that you’re looking to predict. However, we’d recommend trading those markets that give you a good chance of winning while giving you the possibility of making some satisfactory returns.
Yes, you should be able to as prediction markets are regulated on a federal level and are generally available in all 50 states across the nation. Just note that there are a few exceptions such as the fact that you cannot trade the sports contracts at Crypto.com from the states of Arizona, New York, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Illinois.
Loading …
