The 2026 British Open tees off this weekend at the Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport. The final major of the year, this weekend’s tournament will feature warm temperatures, wind gusts exceeding 20 mph, and punishing conditions for players who fail to successfully drive the fairways.
Prediction market traders have more than $60 million riding on the eventual winner as the 48-hour countdown to Thursday tee times begins. Depending on how strong the wind is blowing, this weekend’s tournament could see several high-profile players struggle to make the cut.
FedEx Cup rankings leader Scottie Scheffler has had a good year, but not a great one. The world’s number one player has consistently finished in the top 10, but has played slightly below expectations. For that reason, we really like the value-based contracts for 37-year-old Rory McIlroy to win. You can pick him up for 9.4¢ per contract.
The continuing heat wave throughout the region means that the chance of rain is close to zero, but that doesn’t mean the wind won’t play a significant role. Veteran players who can avoid the pot bunkers and land their drives (or iron shots) on the fairways will have a clear advantage.
McIlroy successfully defended his title at The Masters earlier this year and will be looking to deny Scheffler the opportunity to repeat as the British Open champion this weekend.
More than 200,000 fans are expected to attend the event at Royal Birkdale Golf Club over the course of Thursday through Sunday. The record crowds may add another variable to the year’s final major tournament, especially if a European starts shooting low scores.
Tommy Fleetwood will be playing in front of a home crowd, so traders should keep an eye on his contracts and buy them, preferably before the price goes up, if he goes on a birdie streak Thursday. We’ll also get to see how those 3D-printed clubs that Bryson DeChambeau is sporting perform on the par 70 course that’s filled with treachery for players who are known for wayward shots.
Viewers who tune in to the extended coverage will immediately notice that the course itself isn’t “green.” It’s literally baked due to the harsh weather conditions that have been plaguing Europe for the past several months. Players won’t want to take their second shot out of the deep rough or pot bunkers that the course is known for but will be forced to anyway if their tee shots miss the mark.
Sam Burns is a “dark horse” to win the tournament and is currently listed under 2¢ to win the event. Despite rumors that he would miss the British Open due to his wife expecting the family’s second child, Burns has been spotted in practice rounds. He made the trip, and is a decent option as long as he’s priced at 2.3¢ or below.
Scottie Scheffler’s price to win has dropped over three cents per contract since early July, but we still don’t think he’s performed at a high enough level this year to justify him being the relative favorite to defend his 2025 British Open title. Go with McIlroy to win and make the cut. He’s the safest trade given the hot-and-windy weather conditions that are expected.
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