The general election to decide California’s next governor is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3rd. However, the exact candidates that will face each other in five months have yet to be determined.
Roughly one week after voters took to the polls in the state’s primary race, only Xavier Becerra has secured one of the top two spots so far. Californians are still awaiting the final primary vote count – which currently sits at just over 70% – to find out whether it will be Steve Hilton or Tom Steyer on the ballot against Becerra this November.
We know that Xavier Becerra has been projected to have enough votes to enter the general run-off election in November. According to the latest updates provided by NBC News, the former HHS Secretary will go against either Tom Steyer or Steve Hilton in November, each of whom are still jockeying for position with approximately 72% of all primary votes counted as of early Monday morning.
Kalshi prediction market forecasters seem to know what’s up in terms of who will eventually win the Governor’s Mansion. It’s Xavier Becerra all the way – a prediction we firmly agree with. Although the market won’t fully resolve until November 3rd (or multiple weeks after that due to voters’ predisposition to submit mail-in ballots), Kalshi traders have Becerra at a 90 cents per contract price to come out on top once the dust has settled later this year.
For now, the big question remains as to whether Becerra will be on the general election ballot with Hilton or Steyer.
As one who covers US politics might expect, this past weekend was chock-full of controversy as vote counters continue in their epic quest to tally all the primary votes that have been submitted via mail-in ballot. An interview between president Donald Trump and NBC Meet The Press host Kristen Welker (which aired Sunday) ended with the president walking off the set after he accused Welker or being “either crooked or stupid.”
The topic that provoked the premature termination of the interview? Why, the California primary elections, of course! Even Time Magazine has gotten into the mix, filing their own report over the weekend regarding why key 2026 primary elections in California are taking so long to decide.
Kalshi forecasters are already aware that Xavier Becerra will be participating in the general election this November to become the next California chief executive. What they’re not quite sure of, is whether Steve Hilton or Tom Steyer will be Becerra’s run-off opponent.
The market is moving slightly in favor of Hilton by giving him the best chance, aside from Becerra, at winning the general election. You can buy Hilton at 10 cents per contract, but will probably need to wait until mid-November for the market to resolve. The same can be said for Tom Steyer, who is listed at 2 cents per contract for a November 2026 upset to become the state’s next governor.
Loading …
