Less than 24 hours before polls open in the Centennial State, the race for the Democratic nominee to be Colorado’s next governor has been completely turned on its head. One week ago, prediction market traders were confident that US Senator Michael Bennet would win, but new polling has changed their minds.
Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser is now the frontrunner to become the 2026 Democratic nominee for governor. The winner of tomorrow’s primary will likely face Republican Victor Marx in the November general election, as sitting Governor Jared Polis will be exiting the Governor’s Mansion due to term limits.
Kalshi forecasters who picked up a “yes” contract for Phil Weiser before the most recent polling data was published are potentially in for a huge payday. Weiser, a former dean at the University of Colorado Law School, was listed at just 27 cents per contract on June 23rd.
But then, the Public Policy Polling firm released a survey showing high “unfavorability” numbers for Michael Bennet. Subsequent PAC-sponsored polling likewise showed that Weiser is trending upwards, sending his “yes” per-contract price all the way up to 76¢ as of Monday morning.
Bennet’s campaign is doomed, and the 58-year old Colorado Attorney General is now a virtual lock to win tomorrow’s Democratic primary election for governor and face-off against Victor Marx in November. That’s our pick.
This market could easily reach $1 million by early tomorrow morning. For some voters who are submitting mail-in ballots, the news of Bennet’s polling demise may not have reached them in time to influence their vote. Furthermore, Michael Bennet still has extremely strong name recognition as a sitting United States senator.
The flurry of trading activity that took place immediately following the publication of updated polling data is newsworthy on its own. The shifting tides in favor of Weiser may result in a formidable reaction from value-seeking traders looking to get in on Bennet’s 25¢ per-contract “yes” price for the senator to come out on top once all the ballots have been counted tomorrow.
For better or worse, this market has already moved. Barring some earth-shattering political news that specifically relates to tomorrow’s Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary, there won’t be another 48-cent shift in pricing for the two candidates.
The most updated pre-election polling data has already been released, and exit polling won’t be relayed until after the election sites close tomorrow night. Traders who are still in Bennet’s camp are forecasting that the majority of Colorado primary voters will ignore the trends and cast their ballot for the US senator. That’s not likely, which is why we’re so confident that Phil Weiser will be the Democratic nominee to become Colorado’s next governor.
This market’s trading volume might falter and fail to reach $1 million in volume. If that does indeed occur, you can chalk it up to Kalshi traders’ belief that this race was already decided a week ago.
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