Today, voters in South Carolina will head to the polls to choose the Republican nominee for governor. With current and term-limited governor Henry McMaster on his way out, primary election voters have a slew of candidates to choose from today.
As of Tuesday morning, sitting Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette holds a very slight lead over her closest competitor, South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson. If no candidate receives at least 50% of the total Republican primary vote, the election will go to a run-off on Tuesday, June 23rd.
Despite the congestion shown by recent polling data, Kalshi prediction market traders seem confident that Lt. Governor Pamela Evette will ultimately prevail in the primary election – even if it requires a June 23rd run-off. The main reason forecasters are confident in Evette’s ability to rise about the rest this month is an endorsement from President Donald Trump, posted to Truth Social late last month.
As many who cover US politics are already aware, the “Trump Endorsement Factor” has proven itself to be a dominant force in 2026 Republican primary elections. Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidey and Texas Senator John Cornyn, and Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie have all been unseated in their respective primary elections this year after Trump endorsed opposing candidates.
When it comes to Republican primary elections, Trump’s nod has been as good as gold, and we don’t expect that to change today in South Carolina. Expect Pamela Evette to run-off against Alan Wilson, where she will win the Republican nomination for the state’s next governor on June 23rd.
Aside from Trump’s endorsement, media outlets have focused on the competitive nature of the South Carolina Republican primary for governor. Even current South Carolina Representative Nancy Mace is formally part of today’s Republican primary election, but is trading at less than 3 cents per contract on prediction markets.
Mace was critical of President Trump following the January 2021 events at the US Capitol building, calling for Trump to stop posting on Twitter. Most recently, the South Carolina representative faced fierce opposition from a Trump-endorsed candidate during her 2022 midterm primary election. Donald Trump wasn’t the president at that moment… but he is now, and Nancy Mace is unlikely to garner enough support in today’s Republican primary election for South Carolina governor.
The predominant news story around the Republican primary for South Carolina governor is just how impactful Donald Trump’s endorsement has been on trading activity. Before May 28th, Evette was in a “dead heat” with Attorney General Alan Wilson, with the AG even enjoying a slight lead in prediction markets.
But that has all changed. Just 24 hours following Trump’s endorsement, Pamela Evette’s per-contract price on Kalshi spiked from 30 cents all the way up to 90 cents before stabilizing just shy of 80%. Polls may point to a tighter race – and the primary election may indeed go to a run-off – but Kalshi traders are banking on Pamela Evetee, hands down. Trading volume for the market has already eclipsed $1.5 million.
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