The 2026 World Cup winner market is poised to become the biggest prediction event in Polymarket’s history, bypassing even the hotly contested 2024 US presidential election winner, which ended at $4B in overall trading volume two years ago.
So far, a total of $3.7 billion has been traded on Polymarket’s 2026 World Cup champion event. Forecasters and fans may disagree on which team will hoist the golden trophy later this month, but they all want in on the action.
Once the World Cup matches began, Spain dropped from the top spot after a lackluster performance against Cabo Verde in its opening contest. Since then, France’s price has soared, with the team now trading for 35.1¢ per contract to win it all.
For our part, we’re wary of the price for France. We would rather go with the pre-tournament favorite (Spain) since the price has dropped all the way down to an even 10 cents per contract. Despite the Spaniards’ recent on-field woes, they are still the best team that prediction market sports traders can get for 10¢ at the moment.
Surprisingly, the USMNT is still listed at 2.7¢ per contract in spite of an impressive performance against Bosnia and Herzegovina Wednesday night to advance to the Round of 16. We like both “dark horse” teams if you’re seeking value over popularity.
The United States Men’s National Team (USMNT) was never in jeopardy Wednesday night as it closed out Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0. The USA squad will play its next match at Seattle Stadium against Belgium, the same team that eliminated the USMNT from contention in 2014.
Folarin Balogun received a surprise red card during the Round of 32 match Wednesday night. He will be on the sidelines for the entirety of the USMNT’s Monday matchup against Belgium, which is set to take place just two days after the country’s July 4th Independence Day celebration.
If the USA wins Monday night in Seattle, it will face either Spain, Croatia, Portugal, or Austria in the quarterfinals. The United States hasn’t reached a World Cup semifinal match since 1930, when it received third-place honors in a tournament that only included 13 total teams.
Unless France hits an unanticipated snag, it will be the favored team to win the 2026 World Cup from now on. Although the team opened at under 20 cents per contract on Polymarket, it’s now trading at 35.1 cents for the “yes” option to win the tournament.
The “heavy favorite” odds for France are somewhat astounding given the level of competition that has yet to be eliminated from contention and the $3.7 billion in total trading volume on the World Cup winner’s market alone.
This is why we’re currently passing on France as a “yes” option, not because it’s a worse team, but because its contract price is so high compared to other viable contenders.
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