The race to become Spotify’s most-streamed artist is already heating up. Unsurprisingly, we see Bad Bunny, Drake, and Taylor Swift all in the mix, but who has the best chance of claiming the title in 2026? With some help from Kalshi prediction markets, we aim to provide you with some insight.
Bar the introduction of Bruno Mars, you could have copied and pasted this section from last year’s top three. Bad Bunny, Taylor Swift, and Drake look to steal the show, but who will leave victorious in 2026?
Leading the way, we have Bad Bunny. He has topped the global rankings more than any other artist, and looks set to add to 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2025’s accolades. With Latin music continuing to grow worldwide, we continue to see streaming volume increase. Throw viral performances and fresh releases into the mix, and you can see why there is no stopping him.
You don’t have to be a Swiftie to know about her dominance. Taylor Swift is the most-streamed artist of all time, and continues to rack up huge numbers to this day. Although missing out on last year’s title, Taylor did win the IFPI Global Recording Artist of the Year for the sixth time. We think that a new single, album, or confirmation of a tour will be enough to rock the boat.
Third, you always have to consider Drake. He has been a consistent contender (and previous winner) for Spotify’s artist of the year, but has failed to hit the same numbers as years gone by. Compared with Bad Bunny and Taylor Swift, fresh output has been limited, and we would need to see an album drop and viral hits to land in order to be in with a shot.
The latest prediction markets from Kalshi show Bad Bunny’s dominance. With a 71% chance, it looks like Taylor Swift and Drake would have to release a new album or consider a global tour to get within touching distance. Bruno Mars has possibly released the album of the year so far, and that has only pushed him up to 4% – could it really be this much of a one-horse race?
| Artist | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bad Bunny | 71% | $0.71 | $0.31 |
| Drake | 16% | $0.16 | $0.85 |
| Taylor Swift | 7% | $0.07 | $0.93 |
| Bruno Mars | 4% | £0.04 | $0.97 |
Trading this year’s Spotify number-one artist is vastly different compared with sports or political markets. Naturally, past performance has a little to do with things, but it is all to do with monthly numbers and how big an artist continues to be in the eyes of the public.
Taylor Swift has had a long reign at the top and even won artist of the year without needing to release an album. Even today, she continues to pull in huge monthly numbers, and the release of a new album could be enough to skyrocket her back to the top.
As touched upon, Bad Bunny has a global reach, which makes his chances far greater than those of any artist who has simply conquered the US or UK. With this in mind, you also have to consider the sudden surge in new era country fans and K-Pop, which could throw in a few new contenders.
Trading prediction markets isn’t all about holding. You can also look to ride the wave of this one based on momentum and pull out before the end of the year. Despite competitive monthly numbers, Bruno Mars wasn’t even in contention prior to his latest studio release. Now, he sits with a 4% chance. Had you entered the prediction market prior to the news or official release, you could already be in a positive position.
We always base our verdicts on stats. If you saw our Spotify Wrapped, you’d find a whole host of artists that we believe could be the number-one pick, but when all is said and done, you can’t really look beyond Bad Bunny. The numbers don’t lie; he is riding the momentum well, and the only real problem would occur if Swifties or Drake fans hear of a new release or tour. If you want to make your predictions at Kalshi, click the banners here to get started.
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