The Chicago Bears want a new stadium. One that they own; one that includes plenty of room for parking and tailgating. Meanwhile, prediction market forecasters are debating which site is the frontrunner as the historic NFL team counts the days before it can walk away from its lease at Soldier Field.
Will the Bears wind up in Hammond, Indiana? Or will they opt for a suburban site that keeps them in the state of Illinois? Kalshi trading volume has surpassed $600,000 on “yes/no” contracts related to both possibilities. We’ll break down the pros and cons of each contract and give you our picks below.
Municipal and federal zoning laws are making this prediction market outcome highly debatable. On one hand, you have Hammond, Indiana. The proposed site plays perfectly into the Bears organization’s plans to build a $4 billion domed stadium that includes a “football city” zoning area that’s ideal for parties, tailgating, parking, and other fan-related activities.
On the other hand, you have any number of suburban locations that are within Illinois’ state borders, the most prominent of which is Arlington Heights – located just 25 miles to the northwest of Chicago. But $4 billion is quite a bit of public funding for a non-major US city to come up with, even if the Bears contribute a hefty percentage of that amount.
With this particular market, the devil is in the details. Kalshi says the “yes/no” markets resolve if the decisions are publicly announced by the beginning of the 2028 NFL regular season. As such, we’re picking the “no” option on the team NOT announcing a relocation before September 2028. Although you might feel like holding your nose at the 94¢ per-contract price, this is the best option because the Bears are leaving as soon as they can.
The Bears’ front office has already stipulated that it will be more than happy to pay the $90 million early-exit fee on its lease at Soldier Field. It doesn’t get any percentage of concessions or other revenues for events that are hosted at the venue when the Bears are out of town or enjoying the off-season.
But there’s just so much that has to go right for the organization’s vision to fall into place. They’ll need about 320 acres of land… which works out to roughly one-half of a square mile. Both waterfront and land-locked properties for such a vast space are going to be susceptible to high taxes, zoning disputes, and public opposition. The Bears’ desperation might impact negotiations, even if they are able to acquire tax abatements.
But when you’ve made up your mind (as the Bears’ organization has), the only reasonable option is to cast Soldier Field aside and secure your vision for the future at another site.
Kalshi traders are flip-flopping between the choices of Indiana and a location in Illinois. On June 16th, Hammond (or any other Indiana location) overtook its opposing market and was selling at 51 cents per contract on the “yes” option. Fast-forward ten days, and now the “other location inside Illinois” is priced at 65 cents while Hammond has plummeted to well below 30 cents per contract.
The indecision of Kalshi traders is also causing the Bears’ relocation market forecasters to incur additional costs. A quick look at the individual choices shows a 7-cent discrepancy between 37¢ for “yes” on Indiana and a 70¢ per-contract price for the “no” option.
The clock is ticking, but the market itself won’t resolve until a decision is formally announced or the 2028 NFL regular season begins.
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