The rarity of one team absolutely dominating a major college football conference in the 2020s makes the current Big 12 predicament a news item on its own. Add to that a recent ruling providing an injunction against the NCAA’s action against quarterback Brendan Sorsby, and you have a proverbial “lock” on who’s the overwhelming favorite to win the Big 12 championship game on Friday, December 4th.
Should betting on college football games automatically exclude you from eligibility for an entire season? Can the NCAA win an appeal and reinstate Sorsby’s suspension when most of the relevant judges’ panels contain one or more Texas Tech alumni? Those are more interesting questions than who will actually hoist the Big 12 Championship Trophy later this year, at least if you ask Polymarket prediction market traders.
You can buy Texas Tech to win the Big 12 Championship on December 4th for 82 cents per contract – pick it up at that price while you can. Practically no other major sports news outlet has any other team anywhere close. Not Utah, not BYU, and not Houston.
Given the sheer amount of talent on the Texas Tech Red Raiders’ roster this year – again, with or without Brendan Sorsby – the most likely scenario is that the team finishes its season 12-0 and automatically qualifies for the College Football Playoff, if the CFP doesn’t exclude the Red Raiders due to the ongoing controversy surrounding its quarterback.
Polymarket has already listed the Texas Tech Big 12 champion trade as a “No Dispute” prediction, meaning the trade will be resolved regardless of whether other Big 12 teams follow through with their threats to boycott the team (essentially forfeiting a game on their respective conference schedules).
You can’t google “Big 12 college football news” without the existing controversy around Texas Tech QB Brendan Sorsby popping up at the top of the results page. Every single team in the Big 12 (other than Texas Tech) is contemplating how best to prevent Brendan Sorsby from competing against them once his mandatory 2-game suspension ends.
The court ruling earlier this week to grant Sorsby “injunctive relief” against the NCAA, arguing that a permanent ban would cause the former Cincinnati quarterback “irreparable injury” has caused an uproar within the Big 12 college football conference. Some teams are threatening to boycott; other teams are urging the Big 12 to persuade the Texas Tech athletic department to keep Sorsby off the field for the entirety of the season in spite of this week’s ruling.
Could the CFP actually exclude the Red Raiders from postseason play if the team decides to let Sorsby play? Would that theoretically CFP exclusion fly in the face of ongoing legal proceedings? All Polymarket traders know for sure is that Texas Tech is better than a 4-to-1 favorite to win the Big 12 championship.
There is plenty of time to ponder how the issue will shake out. Week Zero of the 2026 NCAA college football season doesn’t begin until August 29th.
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