July 11th is less than a month away, and traders on prediction markets are doing their own “warm up” in anticipation of Conor McGregor versus Max Holloway. UFC 329 will take place at T-Mobile Arena in Vegas, and features a Main Event rematch from 2013.
Much has changed since then, but fight fans’ hunger for a competitive MMA fight within the octagon hasn’t. The two veterans may not be in their proverbial “prime,” but that doesn’t mean that the match won’t attract plenty of trading interest in its lead up.
Conor McGregor, once the face of the UFC, hasn’t fought competitively for the past five years. His last UFC fight, against Dustin Poirier, resulted in a TKO loss at the end of the first round due to a leg injury he sustained in the opening minutes.
Holloway, on the other hand, has fought as recently as March of this year, although he too sustained a loss (by a 5-round unanimous decision) against Charles Oliveira, losing his BMF belt in the process. Holloway is also moving up to the welterweight division to take on McGregor in three weeks.
Given all the variables, we agree with the general Kalshi trading public that Holloway is close to a 2:1 favorite to win against Conor McGregor. Holloway, at 34 years of age, is just young enough to have a meaningful “youth advantage” over the Dublin, Ireland native, and just old enough to naturally move up in weight.
Conor won’t have to go through a massive weight cut given the 170lb limit, but the wear and tear of an intense training camp could put him at a disadvantage once he enters the octagon on July 11th. We’re going with Holloway at 68 cents per contract on Kalshi. Alternatively, you can pick up a “yes” option on the fight actually occurring before July 13th at 88 cents.
There’s relatively low trading volume on the fight to occur before July 13th, but the price will continue to rise as UFC 329 draws closer. This is why we’re recommending a buy on the “yes” option for the two to formally meet in the octagon on July 11th. Since there aren’t any glaring controversies surrounding payouts or brand image, the only reasonable event that could prevent the matchup would be a pre-fight injury.
Holloway’s price has been downgraded significantly over the course of the past month. He once sat at 73 cents per contract, but has been slowly declining in the eyes of Kalshi traders. However, the market movement hasn’t been enough to keep The Pride of Oahu from being a clear favorite in the UFC 329 Main Event. Recently, the main hiccup has been the ongoing negotiations surrounding the length of the Main Event.
Multiple reports claim that McGregor is pushing for the fight to go only three rounds, which would presumably nullify the perceived advantage Holloway has in terms of cardio. If the UFC 329 Main Event is confirmed to be 5 rounds, you can expect the Kalshi price for Holloway to jump back up.
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