UFC fans have waited five long years for Conor McGregor to return to the Octagon. This Saturday night, just days ahead of his 38th birthday, The Notorious will face off against “Blessed” Max Holloway in a five-round welterweight fight at 170 lbs.
A sellout crowd of 20,000+ fans is expected to pack T-Mobile Arena during the main card, which begins at 6:00pm local time (9:00pm Eastern). If you have yet to do so, check out the Kalshi UFC 329 Main Event winner market, where trading action is already fast and furious before the 48-hour countdown begins.
Expect this market to light up even further in anticipation of tomorrow’s weigh-in. As mentioned above, Kalshi traders have already boosted this fight with $11 million in trading volume—a number that could go moonward by the time the UFC 329 main card gets underway on Saturday.
Max Holloway is the odds-on favorite to defeat the aging Irish superstar. You can go with our pick and buy Holloway’s “yes” contract to win Saturday night at 65¢. Thanks to low-dollar casual fan trades backing McGregor, the Hawaiian’s per-contract price should remain stable at around 2-to-1 odds for value traders. Unless Conor manages to look 70 years old during tomorrow’s televised weigh-in, his Kalshi backers aren’t going anywhere.
Holloway’s age advantage is roughly 3.5 years. Additionally, he’s been active in the Octagon as recently as March 2026. Max Holloway remains the safe position on the board, while Conor McGregor represents the casual public play at 36 cents.
Ticket prices for Saturday’s UFC 329 event are around $1,000 for the cheapest seats, with VIP partner-investor passes going for over $1,000,000. However, resale prices have dropped slightly (for the cheap seats) in recent days, which has come as somewhat of a surprise to fans who have anxiously waited five years for Conor McGregor’s return to the Octagon.
MMA media outlets have been talking about McGregor’s repeated absences during drug testing requests back in 2024, but International Fight Week is still going forward with Conor as its closing act. Both main event fighters spent their early careers dominating the featherweight division, which essentially was 25 pounds ago. McGregor may be the bigger fighter when compared side-by-side, but Holloway is leaner with stellar cardio.
In the past 24 hours, the Kalshi market for the UFC 329 Main Event winner has gone as follows:
With that said, the “sharps” haven’t been able to counterbalance all the positions that fans are gobbling up for McGregor to win Saturday night. Two months ago, Holloway opened at 76 cents per contract. He’s now trading at 65 cents and is attracting big money.
Standard Paramount+ subscribers ($8.99 per month) will be able to watch UFC 329 in its entirety, beginning with the Early Prelims and ending with the main event. If that’s not an option, many bars and restaurants will be televising all the main card action. We recommend verifying ahead of time to reserve a table in case your local hangout is going to be packed Saturday night.
If you haven’t tried Kalshi prediction markets, you can sign up for a new account right now as long as you’re in the United States and are at least 18 years of age. Kalshi is hosting more than a dozen individual “yes/no” markets on the UFC 329 Main Event alone.
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