The French Open Championship begins at the end of May and, with main contender Carlos Alcaraz injured, it looks as though Jannik Sinner is the name to beat. But, can anyone stop him from bagging his first French Open title?
In this guide, we’ll take a look at the contenders who could stop Sinner from lifting the trophy, from veteran Novak Djokovic to former finalist Alexander Zverev, and up-and-coming Arthur Fils, who’ll have the home crowd with him. With support from prediction exchange Kalshi, we’ll take you through each player’s chances and how conditions might impact the ultimate winner.
On April 24th, defending French Open Champion Carlos Alcaraz announced that he would be pulling out of the French Open due to an ongoing wrist injury. With two-time tournament winner Alcaraz out of the mix, it very much looks as though world number one Jannik Sinner would have no issue closing down the competition to claim his fifth Grand Slam title. But, can anyone halt his trajectory?
The numbers here bear a little more scrutiny. The French Open is the only Grand Slam that Sinner has yet to win. He was beaten in the final in 2025 by Alcaraz and in the semi-final in 2024. Clay is considered Sinner’s worst surface but he’s been building impressive form in the pre-French clay events.
If we look at recent French Open history, the bridesmaid of recent tournaments is Alexander Zverev, who has a 7% chance of winning the French Open title at Kalshi. Novak Djokovic could also be a possible winner. Let’s take a closer look at their chances.
Zverev was a French Open finalist in 2024 and has a powerful playing style that can cope well with the physical demands of clay. His seeding and the order of play will be important but it’s possible this tournament could be Zverev’s window of opportunity to claim his first Grand Slam title.
At Kalshi, Zverev’s numbers have remained stable, at around 8% after spiking close to 15% at the end of April.
Former world number one and four-time winner of the French Open, Novak Djokovic could seem like a contender. But, after losing to a qualifier in the Italian Open, Djokovic’s game doesn’t look as though it has the firepower to stand against Sinner. However, Djokovic can’t be written off, and currently has a 7% chance of winning the title according to Kalshi members.
Frenchman Arthur Fils has been building up solid form recently, and has gone deep into the draw at many events, becoming the fifth most successful player this season. An injury scare prompted him to retire from the Rome Masters but this was precautionary and he’s now been given the green light to prepare for the French. The home crowd will certainly give Fils a boost and, if the clay conditions are hot and dry, Fils’ quick and powerful game could give him an edge.
It seems unlikely that the French Open title will go outside of the names we’ve listed but there’s always a chance. The playing conditions can vary significantly based on weather — cooler and damper weather slows the court down while sunshine and warmer temperatures make the clay play faster. Clay is also considered the most physically demanding surface with long, grinding rallies. This could mean the freshest player has a slight advantage as we get into the later stages of the competition.
At Kalshi, tennis is one of the most popular sports markets and covers a whole range of events including the French Open. If you’d like to make a trade on this market, Kalshi makes the perfect base, not only for this variety but because it’s one of the best prediction market apps out there. Once you’ve signed up for an account, making sure to claim any eligible new member bonuses, you can use the search feature to go straight to the French Open or browse through the categories to see all upcoming tennis events.
Select your market and choose your Yes or No price. Complete your purchase and you’ll still be able to adjust your selection as the final of Roland Garros draws nearer.
In the table below, we’ve outlined the implied chances of victory for Sinner and his main competitors in the French Open competition according to the traders at Kalshi, plus their current prices. Just keep in mind that these are subject to change:
| Player | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | 69% | $0.72 | $0.31 |
| Alexander Zverev | 7% | $0.08 | $0.93 |
| Novak Djokovic | 6% | $0.06 | $0.95 |
| Arthur Fils | 3% | $0.03 | $0.98 |
| Casper Ruud | 3% | $0.03 | $0.98 |
Prior to Alcaraz’s withdrawal from the French Open he and Sinner were tied at 50% each at Kalshi, telling us that the market believed the outcome would only go one of two ways. With Alcaraz out, Sinner’s chances of winning jumped dramatically to 70% but there are a few other players who’ll be hoping to expose the gap. Make your trade on this market by using our banners to visit Kalshi today.
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