On Wednesday night, the USMNT outlasted Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 in its World Cup Round of 32 matchup. The US Men’s National Team now advances to a Round of 16 showdown with Belgium on Monday night in Seattle.
In all, Kalshi traders put $147 million into the main winner’s market for the USA match that was played last night. The secondary market for which team would be the regulation time winner achieved nearly $20 million in its own trading action before the final whistle blew.
The USMNT will be looking to avenge a loss to Belgium in the 2014 World Cup, where it was defeated in the Round of 16. For Monday night’s match in Seattle, Kalshi traders have already put in more than a quarter million dollars on the eventual winner.
Right now, Kalshi traders are divided over which team will advance. The per-contract price for USA to reach the quarterfinals is currently 54¢ versus 47¢ for Belgium. By all accounts, this will be a hotly contested match. The last time the USMNT reached the World Cup quarterfinals was in 2002.
We’re going with the home team on Monday. The crowd at Seattle Stadium will likely come out in full force for the co-host, which is celebrating its July 4th Independence Day over the weekend. Look for the red-white-and-blue to advance to face either Spain, Croatia, Austria, or Portugal in the quarterfinals.
The fact that the USMNT has a chance to make up for its loss against Belgium 12 years ago is headlining much of the coverage ahead of Monday night’s match in Seattle. Many feel 2026 is the best chance for the USA to advance to the World Cup semifinals for the first time since 1930 (when only 13 teams participated in the tournament).
They’ll have to get past a tough Belgium team to do so, however. After placing first during the Group phase of the 2026 World Cup, Belgium had to come back from a 2-0 deficit against Senegal just to make it to the Round of 16.
At current trends, the USA vs. Belgium match will be one of the closest contests, in terms of odds, so far in this year’s World Cup. Kick-off is set for 5:00pm local time at Seattle Stadium.
Much of the market for the 2026 World Cup winner has moved in favor of France and Argentina, with the former being traded as high as 35.1¢ per contract at prediction markets. This leaves plenty of room for value-based trading on the USMNT to win it all at 4.3¢ per contract.
USA is still listed as a Top 10 team and has moved up a spot to No. 8 on the list following Germany’s shock exit from the 2026 World Cup. The biggest price drop so far in the World Cup winner’s market is undoubtedly Spain, which opened near 20¢ and is now trading for just 10¢ per contract. If you’re confident Spain’s chances haven’t diminished despite closer-than-expected matches, then now is the perfect time to pick up the “yes” option for that team to win the 2026 World Cup.
If you’re in the United States, you can watch Monday’s Round of 16 match between the USA and Belgium on FOX (English) or on Telemundo (Spanish). FuboTV subscribers will be able to stream the match in real time.
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