The 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup begins in just over 100 days and things are starting to heat up at prediction markets such as Kalshi. Currently, Spain has the highest probability of winning, but this could all change.
France were runners-up in the last World Cup and are hotly tipped to go deep into the later stages in 2026. They sit in the number two position at Kalshi, but are less than one point behind Spain. If you’re interested in making a pick on this market, we’ve got everything you need right here, including a closer look at possible winners.
For the first time in the tournament’s history, teams representing 48 countries will compete in 16 cities across North America. Argentina is the defending champion, following a thrilling defeat of France in the last World Cup via penalty shootout. However, at Kalshi, Argentina is only ranked in fourth place.
At the moment, Spain is the leader at sports prediction markets, including Kalshi. However, at 17.1% compared to France’s 16.3%, these margins are slim. Let’s take a more detailed look at how Kalshi views the chances of each team:
Following a very recent 0-0 result against Egypt, Spain has just slipped out of the number one position in the international ranking. But they’re still most likely World Cup Winners at Kalshi for now, with around a 17% implied probability.
Spain is in Group H along with Uruguay, Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia. Given the strength of their team, it’s unlikely Spain will struggle to get out of the group stages, and could build up strong goal difference points to put themselves in a more favourable position in the knockout rounds.
When Spain dropped to number two in the official FIFA international rankings, France slipped into the number one spot. Like Spain, France shouldn’t have any difficulty in getting out of their group stages, but they will face more difficult competition against Norway, where striker Haaland will seize on any opportunity.
England enter the World Cup in Group L, along with Croatia, Ghana and Panama. They should be able to progress to the knockout stages comfortably, but lack team cohesion and are trailing Spain and France by around four points at Kalshi, sitting at 12%.
Kalshi lists several other main contenders as World Cup winners, including Argentina, Brazil and Portugal. The latter will include Cristiano Ronaldo, who, at 41, is possibly facing his last chance of winning the World Cup.
Since this market opened in May 2025 at Kalshi, we’ve seen the numbers for each team remain fairly consistent, but here’s a closer look at market shifts:
Spain has remained in the number one position on Kalshi but only has a small margin over the other top-ranked teams. They are one-time World Cup winners (2010), but have a team that consistently holds some of the best-ranked players in any league.
France enters the World Cup with an incredibly experienced and skilled side and is a two-time World Cup winner (1998 and 2018). At Kalshi, they have switched between the number two and number three spot with England but have settled in now at 16.3%, nearly four points ahead of the Lions.
England has played two international friendlies in the past month and failed to secure a win in either match. There are many world-leading players in the squad, reflecting their third-place position at Kalshi, but manager Thomas Tuchel doesn’t seem to have found a strong starting eleven just yet.
The expanded tournament format this year will see the two top teams from each group advance to the knockout round, along with the eight best-performing third-placed teams. This new system could see some very interesting permutations as higher-ranking third-placed teams enter the later stages.
Throughout the tournament, we’ll see a total of 104 matches played, with a very real possibility of extra time and penalties in the later stages. This gruelling schedule, coming after busy club seasons for many of the players on the top teams, could have a real impact on performance.
There are several teams with a very strong record at the World Cup, including Brazil, with five wins (more than any other nation), and Argentina, which is the most recent winner and holds three titles. However, the updated tournament system could see some lower-ranked teams go deeper into the competition and cause stress to more dominant teams.
We should also remember that the 2026 World Cup is being held across three countries and will see considerable variation in temperatures and settings. This will change the game itself (how the ball plays) and could be difficult for players, especially goalkeepers.
Kalshi is one of our top prediction markets and gives members the chance to buy ‘Yes/No’ contracts on overall competition winners as well as individual matches and other markets. Here’s how you can make your trade:
Cast your eye over this table to see the up-to-date winning chances for the leading teams. Prices are correct at the time of writing, but it’s important to remember that this market is subject to fluctuation:
| Team | Chance of winning | ‘Yes’ price | ‘No’ price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 17.1% | 17.3¢ | 82.9¢ |
| France | 16.3% | 16.3¢ | 84.4¢ |
| England | 12.1% | 12.1¢ | 88¢ |
| Argentina | 9.7% | 9.7¢ | 90.8¢ |
| Brazil | 9.2% | 9.8¢ | 90.8¢ |
The 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup kicks off on the 11th June with a match between South Africa and Mexico. It’s too early to call a winner just yet, but Spain is out in front, with France close behind. England and Argentina are also possible frontrunners, but we’ll have to wait for the group stage matches for a clearer indication of team performance.
To lock in your pick of World Cup Winner 2026, you can head over to Kalshi now using our banners. Signing up is easy and there are more than 50 possible World Cup markets to explore.
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