The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is set for tonight at 8:00pm Eastern Time at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. A total of eight contestants will step up to the plate and attempt to launch as many home runs as possible against their preferred batting practice pitchers.
So far, prediction market sports traders have put in $1.1 million in total volume on Kalshi ahead of tonight’s showcase event, which leads into tomorrow’s All-Star Game. Swing-based rounds are returning this year, so there won’t be any “outs” recorded. As of Monday morning, here’s what we know.
Forecasters on Kalshi are somewhat split on who will win tonight’s Home Run Derby, giving a slight edge to Phillies outfielder Kyle Schwarber. At 22¢ per contract, the Ohio native is the relative favorite to claim the $1 million top prize and Home Run Derby chain.
We’re bullish on Schwarber’s chances, too. We’ll gladly buy contracts at the current price given that he leads the league in home runs this year, is batting in a park he’s extremely familiar with, and is left-handed. The pull alley for left-handed hitters at Citizens Bank Park is more favorable, which gives us another reason to pick Schwarber over 23-year-old Junior Caminero.
If the field dimensions were flipped, we’d go with the right-handed third baseman. That’s not the case, however, so Kyle Schwarber is our pick to win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby tonight.
There will be no “outs” for tonight’s event. Each batter is given 20 swings during the first round, 15 swings in the second round, and 15 swings in the final round. Home runs will count as full “swings” unless it is the last chance within a round, in which case the batters will continue swinging until they fail to hit a home run. Batters can still theoretically hit an “unlimited” number of home runs, but they’ll have to knock the balls out of the park on their final swing attempt to run up high scores.
On the surface, the returning format favors younger players like Junior Caminero and Munetaka Murakami. We’ve already explained why we’re taking the “no” option for Caminero due to his right-handed hitting. We’re also passing on Murakami since he’s returning from a hamstring injury that kept him out of action for six weeks.
Kyle Schwarber opened at a ridiculous 43 cents per contract, but has since come down to a much more reasonable 22 cents. Caminero has similarly dropped since opening at 41 cents on July 10th.
As long as Schwarber’s per-contract price remains at 25¢ or below, we’re buying the contracts. Otherwise, we’re passing on all other potential winners of tonight’s MLB Home Run Derby.
If you’re in the United States, you can watch the live stream with a premium Netflix subscription. Barry Bonds will be on set to provide analysis and commentary before and during the event starting with preliminary coverage that’s scheduled for 7:00pm Eastern. There aren’t any viewing options for cable TV subscribers, so Netflix is your best bet if you’re located in the US.
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