The Atlanta Braves (89-63) are coming off a 6-3 win in the series opener against the Chicago Cubs (84-68). With a 5.5-game lead in the NL East over the Philadelphia Phillies, there’s not too much to play for here, as the Braves are entrenched in their playoff spot.
On the other hand, the Cubs are trying to hold onto their wild card position. They’re first among wild card teams, ahead of the Phillies (0.5 game), Padres (1.5 games), and Diamondbacks (four games). They’re in a comfortable spot, but they still have to win games to keep their position secure.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB prediction markets to find value on this game.
The Cubs are priced at 58 cents to win this game. This is because they have home-field advantage with the edge on the mound. Chicago is sending out Shota Imanaga, who has a 3.88 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 162.1 innings this season. Imanaga has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four outings.
On the other side, the Braves are going with JR Ritchie, who has a 4.50 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP this year. Ritchie has been capped at 4.1 innings in his last six outings, so he’s not projected to go deep in this game. That means that the Braves will have to rely on their bullpen in this one.
With that said, I don’t feel comfortable paying such an expensive price on the Cubs against the Braves, who are the better team. Imanaga has had some blowups this season, including five runs allowed in back-to-back starts vs. the Giants and Padres in mid-June.
That’s why I’m looking at Under 7.5 runs in this game. The reason why the number is so low is due to weather. Forecasts are calling for 8 MPH winds to be blowing in from center field. That can turn a potential home run into a routine fly ball. On top of that, we’re getting cooler temperatures in the low-70s, which is pitcher-friendly weather.
Considering those favorable circumstances, we’ll bet on a low-scoring game in this potential playoff preview between the Braves and Cubs.
The Cubs were priced at nearly 56 cents early on Wednesday morning, but that’s moved to 58 cents, as traders seem to be leaning to Chicago’s side due to the pitching advantage. The total has remained at 7.5 runs, which reflects how pitcher-friendly the conditions at Wrigley Field are tonight.
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