The Chicago Cubs are facing elimination after getting blown out by the San Diego Padres in a lopsided 8-0 loss in Game 1. The Cubs were unable to solve Padres’ right-hander Michael King, who tossed seven scoreless innings, allowing three walks with eight strikeouts. The Padres didn’t even have to use Mason Miller in that game, which bodes well for them in Game 2.
The Cubs are on the ropes here, hoping that Kevin Gausman can save them. With that in mind, let’s dive into MLB prediction markets to try to find value in this matchup.
The Padres are priced at 57 cents to win this game. This makes a ton of sense considering what we’ve seen from them lately. This is the hottest team in MLB, coming into the playoffs having won 18 of their previous 22 games. They followed that up with an 8-0 win in Game 1.
With Fernando Tatis Jr. back to hitting like an MVP candidate, the Padres have a formidable lineup that also includes Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Ty France. They’ve also gotten healthier in their rotation, most notably with today’s starter, Nick Pivetta.
I’m riding with the Padres to win this game. Simply put, it’s buying into a red-hot team swinging the bats well. Nick Pivetta has been terrific since returning from injury in September. He’s allowed a combined three earned runs across 18.2 innings. That’s good news against a Cubs offense that has scored three runs or fewer in six of their last seven games.
Chicago is countering with Kevin Gausman, who has a lot of postseason experience, especially from last year, when he helped the Blue Jays get to the World Series. However, we’ve seen Gausman be a bit inconsistent lately. He got rocked against the Brewers on Sep. 9 and hasn’t pitched six innings in three straight starts.
We should also note that the Padres have the significant edge in the bullpen, especially with Mason Miller not having to be used in their Game 1 win. I’m betting against the Cubs’ bats finding their groove against Pivetta for five innings and the high-leverage Padres’ arms the rest of the way. Look for the Padres to complete the sweep here.
The Padres have moved from 57 cents to 56 cents. It’s a marginal shift, but one that reflects market sentiment of buying into a good Cubs team avoiding the sweep here. But given how inconsistent has been, coupled with the Padres’ bullpen and home-field advantage, it’s hard not to buy into San Diego in this spot.
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