The Los Angeles Dodgers (80-51) are rolling again, currently on a six-game winning streak. They’re set for a statement series against the Atlanta Braves (76-55) in what could be an NLCS preview.
The Braves are in poor form right now, losing seven of their last 10 games. They’ve been held to four runs or fewer in seven straight games, so their bats are ice-cold right now. This is their first game at home off a seven-game road trip. Let’s see if they can get back on track as we look at MLB prediction markets.
The Dodgers are priced at 60 cents to win this game. This makes sense because they’re the better team in top form right now, while the Braves are on a cold streak. It may seem like a hefty price for a road team, but when you add in the pitching advantage, it looks like a fair number.
Tyler Glasnow is making his return for the Dodgers. It’s his first start since May 6th. The oft-injured righty had been excellent for the Dodgers, putting up a 2.72 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP in 39.2 innings before the injury.
The Braves are sending out Bryce Elder. While he’s allowed one earned run in three of his last four starts, he’s prone to blowups, as we saw in the other outing within this recent sample, where he gave up seven earned runs.
I’m taking Braves Over 3.5 runs scored: No, which is priced at 50 cents. Tyler Glasnow has been terrific when on the mound this season. He also looked sharp in his rehab assignments, allowing only two runs on three hits with four walks and 20 strikeouts in 13.2 innings.
During his rehab assignments, Glasnow was built up to 77 pitches in his last outing, so I’m not too concerned with his workload here. There’s a good chance that he can get up to 80-85 pitches in this one, which would put six innings within reach.
The Braves have one of the coldest offenses in baseball right now. In the last 14 days, they have a 69 wRC+, which ranks 30th in MLB. While playing at home is more favorable for them, I don’t think they’ll get back on track against Glasnow.
With the Braves staying Under 3.5 runs in five of their last seven games, I’ll take a shot on that continuing in a tough spot vs. Glasnow.
Dodgers’ starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow has been dominant in rehab assignments, built up to 77 pitches, so there aren’t many workload restrictions here. Given that he had four starts in the minors, it’s clear that the Dodgers didn’t call him up until he was fully ready.
The Braves have been nowhere near as good lately, going 6-10 in their last 16 games. It’s hard to see them getting back on track against the best team in MLB.
The Dodgers opened around 58% favorites for this game, but there hasn’t been much movement in the market here, as they’re currently 60 cents to win. Los Angeles clearly has the edge in this game, but they’re a bit too pricey to take to win, so we’re going Braves Under 3.5 runs instead.
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