When we last updated World Series pricing following the trade deadline, the Dodgers were at 41 cents. But now, they’ve fallen to only 30 cents, providing traders with some value at MLB prediction markets.
The biggest question here is, do the Dodgers have what it takes to complete the three-peat? Or can we find more value on contenders like the Brewers, Rays, or Yankees? Let’s scan the board to find out.
We have a terrific buying opportunity on the Dodgers at 30 cents. The market is overlooking the fact that the regular season means absolutely nothing to this team. They use it to get ready for the playoffs. Simply put, the Dodgers are a superteam, and any slight discount we can get on them, we need to pounce. It’s going to be tough to stop Shohei Ohtani and company.
The Dodgers have a ridiculously stacked pitching staff led by Tarik Skubal, who has rounded into form coming into the playoffs, pitching seven shutout innings in two of his last three outings. Combined with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Dodgers have two of the best pitchers in baseball at the top of their rotation. Even with Shohei Ohtani not pitching, there is still Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow to round out this group.
But the biggest difference with this year’s version of the Dodgers is the backend of their bullpen. During last year’s run, Roki Sasaki was forced to work as the closer, even though he was a converted starter. This time around, they have Tanner Scott, who put up a 2.69 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. With the bullpen shored up, it’s going to be tough to beat this team, especially when you deal with aces like Skubal and Yamamoto.
Then you look at the lineup. Kyle Tucker has been a massive disappointment, but he hit seven of his 17 homers in September. It appears as if he’s finding his swing at the right time. Combined with Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, there’s still enough firepower here. It’s hard to see anyone stopping this team.
The Brewers had a terrific season where they went 103-59. What sets them apart from last year’s version is Jacob Misiorowski. At this time last season, he was an upstart rookie who was losing gas in his debut season. Now, he’s at peak form, established as the clear-cut best pitcher in baseball. Combined with a deep bullpen, that makes the Brewers a formidable opponent.
Then you add in Logan Henderson, who had a breakout year, putting up a 2.47 ERA in 98.1 innings. Add in an underrated lineup led by Jackson Chourio, and it’s clear that the Brewers are a threat to the Dodgers.
But in my view, the Brewers are overvalued right now based on what they did in the regular season. You can take that with a grain of salt because the playoffs are like an entirely different sport. There’s not enough here to knock off the Dodgers, in my eyes.
The Rays had an excellent season, winning the AL East behind an MVP-caliber performance from Junior Caminero. They also have a rock-solid rotation with Drew Rasmussen at the top. This is a world-class organization that was able to unlock deadline acquisition Freddy Peralta, who has found his groove.
The good thing with buying into the Rays is that they’ll be able to avoid the Dodgers until the World Series. If they can get that far, you can exit your position early or hold the line in a tough spot vs. a superteam.
Tampa definitely has a good enough team to go on a run, but I’m not sure there’s enough star power here to knock off the Dodgers.
Other contenders include the Yankees (10%), who need Aaron Judge to overcome his rib injury and lead the way, along with the Padres (6.5%), who are the hottest team in baseball. Let’s not forget the Guardians (6.3%), Braves (5.7%), and Red Sox (4.1%), each of which look like legit dark horses.
But in the end, it feels like we’re prolonging the inevitable here. The Dodgers are headed for a three-peat.
Loading …
