The Cleveland Guardians (81-75) are rolling right now, winning five in a row, putting them ahead of the Chicago White Sox by one game in the AL Central. With Cleveland already secure in the AL Wild Card race (four games ahead of the Astros), the division title is what they’re playing for right now.
On the other side, the Boston Red Sox (84-72) are entrenched in their playoff position as the second wild card, with no ability to improve their seed. To that end, they’re merely playing out the rest of the year to get ready for the playoffs.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB prediction markets to find value on this game.
The Red Sox are priced at 55 cents to win this game. This is because they have home-field advantage along with their ace on the mound. Payton Tolle has been terrific for Boston this season, putting up a 3.02 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP with 166 strikeouts and 37 walks in 143 innings.
However, you can argue that there isn’t an edge in pitching for Boston here, as Parker Messick has similarly been fantastic for the Guardians. The left-hander has registered a 2.57 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP with 186 strikeouts and 45 walks in 178.1 innings.
With that in mind, I’m loving the value on the Guardians at 46 cents in this spot. Not only has Messick been just as good, if not better, than Tolle, but there’s more at stake for Cleveland here. They’re trying to win the AL Central instead of hold onto the last wild card spot. That would give them a bye into the ALDS.
Plus, Messick has been rolling lately, allowing a combined 10 earned runs in his last six starts. With on the line for the Guardians, there’s a better chance that Messick will see his usual workload.
The same can’t be said for Tolle, as the Red Sox have no incentive to push him too much given the low-stakes nature of this matchup for them. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Tolle held to around 80-85 pitches for this game to prepare him for the postseason run.
To that end, I’m giving the edge to the Guardians at a nice price here.
There hasn’t been much market movement for this game, as the Red Sox have remained as 54-55 cent favorites throughout the last 24 hours. But given how Boston is struggling lately and doesn’t have much to play for here, while the opposite is true for the Guardians, Cleveland looks like the prudent buy in this one.
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