The New York Mets (52-67) are coming off an 11-1 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates, led by Bo Bichette’s five-hit game. While the Mets have been among the most disappointing teams in MLB this year, they’re playing well lately, winning five of their last six games.
The Atlanta Braves (71-47) just lost two of three on the road against the New York Yankees, with the two losses coming in extra innings, so their bullpen is taxed for this game. This feels like a letdown spot for the Braves, so let’s look at MLB prediction markets to see where we can find value.
The Braves are priced at 58 cents to win this game because they’re the much better team and they’re playing at home. However, this could be an upset loss considering how well the Mets are playing lately. New York is sending out one of its hottest pitchers as well.
Christian Scott has a 3.15 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP with 32 walks and 92 strikeouts in 74.1 innings. When he faced the Braves on July 29th, he went six innings, allowing only one earned run with one walk and seven strikeouts. He’s now racked up seven strikeouts in each matchup vs. the Braves this season.
The Braves are countering with Bryce Elder, who has a 3.70 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP with 42 walks and 104 strikeouts in 126.2 innings. Elder has been in a nice rhythm lately, allowing a combined three earned runs in his last three starts, spanning 18 innings. However, the Mets are red-hot at the plate. When Elder faced the Mets on June 14th, he gave up six earned runs in only four innings.
I’m taking the Mets to win at 43 cents in this game. This is not only a bet on Scott over Elder, but also the fact that the Braves have played in two extra-inning games in their last three. When your bullpen is fatigued, it makes it hard to hold off an opposing lineup, especially one that is swinging the bat as well as the Mets. With the Mets 5-1 in their last six, they look like live underdogs tonight.
Mets’ rookie outfielder Carson Benge dealt with wrist soreness after he crashed into the wall while making a terrific catch against the Pirates on Friday. Benge missed the game on Saturday, but returned to the lineup on Sunday. He put up two hits in that game, so there doesn’t seem to be any lingering effects from the injury.
The Mets’ offense has been red-hot, scoring at least six runs in five of their last six games. Facing a pitcher like Elder that they’ve hit hard in the past bodes well for them tonight.
The Braves’ bullpen is fatigued after two extra-inning games in their last three. Closer Raisel Iglesias has pitched in two of the last three games, as have Didier Fuentes, Tyler Kinley, and Dylan Dodd. Those are some of the most valuable relievers in the Braves’ bullpen who may not be available tonight.
The Braves opened as 56.4% favorites for this game, but the market has moved in their favor at 58 cents now. This isn’t surprising because most will see a significant gap between these two teams’ records. They’ll just look at the better team at home. However, given the starting pitching matchup and the state of the Braves’ bullpen, the Mets look like the sharper side.
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