NL Rookie of the Year includes three viable contenders. Cardinals shortstop JJ Wetherholt is the clear favorite, followed by Reds first baseman Sal Stewart and Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean. With two months of baseball left to be played, there’s still time to find value at MLB prediction markets.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at my pick for NL Rookie of the Year.
Nolan McLean is my pick to win NL Rookie of the Year. The Mets right-hander has some of the best stuff in baseball. He’s capable of dominating down the stretch. We just saw McLean shut down the Marlins for 6.1 innings last night. At 9%, you’re buying into McLean at a rock-bottom price. There’s a ton of value here.
JJ Wetherholt is currently slashing .253/.349/.396 with 16 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 470 plate appearances. He’s been polished at the plate, putting up a 16.0% strikeout rate and a 10.0% walk rate. We’ve also seen Wetherholt play excellent defense, ranking in the 100th percentile in Outs Above Average, according to Baseball Savant.
Needless to say, the Cardinals shortstop has been a very well-rounded player in his first MLB season, which is why he’s at 3.9 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For context, that ranks 9th in all of baseball. Wetherholt would need to go on a prolonged slump to get out of the driver’s seat for NL Rookie of the Year.
Currently at 58 cents, Wetherholt has jumped in price since June 1st. At that time, he was priced at 37 cents. You’d be buying at a premium price if you purchased shares of Wetherholt to win NL Rookie of the Year right now, which is why I prefer to look elsewhere in this market.
Sal Stewart was my pick to win NL Rookie of the Year before the season started. He’s lived up to expectations at the plate, slashing .254/.333/.471 with 22 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 468 plate appearances. Putting up a .210 ISO with a 22.0% strikeout rate is quite impressive for a 22-year-old.
The problem is that Stewart hasn’t provided much value with the glove. While he’s been versatile, playing at first base, second base, and third base, he’s currently only in the 65th percentile in Outs Above Average, according to Baseball Savant. That’s why he’s been worth only 1.7 WAR, which is a lot less than the favorite, Wetherholt (3.9 WAR).
That means that for Stewart to win this award, he’ll have to catch fire at the plate. While that’s certainly possible, now is not the time to buy at 26 cents. He was 16 cents as recently as June 20th.
Nolan McLean is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, putting up a 3.29 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP with a 28.4% strikeout rate and an 8.6% walk rate in 125.2 innings.
We’ve seen McLean get in a nice rhythm of late. In his last 11 starts, he has a 2.24 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP with a 27.1% strikeout rate and a 9.7% walk rate in 64.1 innings. During this stretch, McLean has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 10 of 11 outings.
If McLean can keep this going, there’s a chance he can win NL Rookie of the Year, as long as Wetherholt and Stewart slow down at the plate.
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