The Pittsburgh Pirates (73-73) are one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning eight of their last 10 games. All of a sudden, they’re five games back of the final NL Wild Card spot. While the postseason is still a longshot, there’s now a glimmer of hope.
It’s a matchup against the Chicago White Sox (75-70), who have hit a wall lately, losing seven of their last 10 games. During this stretch, their bats have gone cold, as they’ve put up three runs or fewer in four of their last seven games. To that end, let’s dive into MLB prediction markets to find value on this game.
This game is as even as it gets, as both teams are priced at 50 cents. The market is accounting for how red-hot the Pirates have been, as usually, the White Sox would be favored here due to their better record at home field advantage.
Pittsburgh is sending out Jared Jones, who is coming off a dominant outing against the White Sox, where he tossed six scoreless innings with one walk and nine strikeouts. This is a good spot for him to build on that outing, as the White Sox have ice-cold bats.
Chicago is countering with Hagen Smith, who has essentially been deployed as a bulk reliever, as he’s been capped at three innings so far. With Smith unlikely to go more than three innings here, the White Sox will rely on their bullpen in this one.
I’m taking the Pirates to win at 50 cents. These are teams trending in opposite directions right now, with the Pirates playing their best baseball of the year and the White Sox at their worst. It also helps Pittsburgh that rookie phenom Konnor Griffin has been back in the lineup during this stretch, following an extended absence.
Griffin has provided a spark at the top of the order, racking up two RBI and two stolen bases in Wednesday night’s win over Chicago. On top of that, Bryan Reynolds has been red-hot at the plate, ranking 1st in xwOBA in the last seven days.
With Jared Jones coming off a dominant outing, that gives the Pirates the edge on the mound over Hagen Smith and the White Sox bullpen. Add in the red-hot bats, and you can see why the Pirates are worth buying into at 50 cents.
There hasn’t been much market movement for this game, as the pricing has hovered around 50 cents for each team. With that said, you have to give the edge to the Pirates for how well they’ve been playing lately. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another strong outing from Jared Jones vs. a struggling White Sox offense.
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