The Boston Red Sox (82-68) are just playing out the year, as they’re not in a position where they can improve their playoff seeding, fully entrenched in the second AL Wild Card spot, but 8.5 games back of the Tampa Bay Rays for the AL East lead.
The Texas Rangers (74-76) are fighting for a playoff spot, currently with two paths to the postseason. Either they catch the Houston Astros for the AL West lead, where they’re currently one game back. The other path involves surpassing the Cleveland Guardians for the final AL Wild Card spot (1.5 games back).
With the Rangers’ playoff hopes on the line, let’s take a look at MLB prediction markets to find value on this game.
The Red Sox are priced at 52 cents to win this game despite being the road team. This is mainly because they’re the better team in good form, having won seven of the last 10 games. But it’s a pretty neutral pitching matchup with Patrick Sandoval (4.58 ERA, 1.76 WHIP) and Cody Bradford (4.72 ERA, 1.57 WHIP).
Given the desperation of the situation for the Rangers, coupled with the fact that the Red Sox really don’t have much to play for, we’re getting some decent value on Texas in this spot.
That’s why I’m riding with the Rangers at 49 cents. Texas has been playing a bit better lately, winning two games in a row. During this stretch, their offense has come alive, scoring a combined 13 runs, with 6+ runs in each game.
We just saw Patrick Sandoval allow four earned runs on 10 hits in his last outing. He’s a pitcher that gives up a ton of contact and doesn’t miss many bats, so facing an offense that is getting on track isn’t a good spot for him.
We just need Cody Bradford to limit the damage for four to five innings. With the Rangers treating every remaining game like it’s the playoffs, expect a short leash, where they rely on their bullpen, especially since they had a day off yesterday.
Since the Red Sox aren’t in that scenario, I give the edge to the Rangers here.
The Red Sox were priced at nearly 54 cents early on Tuesday morning, but that’s moved to 52 cents, as traders seem to be seeing the value on the Rangers as home underdogs. The total has remained at 7.5 runs, which reflects how pitcher-friendly Globe Life Field is.
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