Game 1 of the AL Wild Card series between AL East rivals, the Boston Red Sox (87-75) and New York Yankees (93-68), starts tonight at 8 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. This is an intriguing series starting with a potential pitcher’s duel between Payton Tolle and Cam Schlittler.
It sets up as a low-scoring game, which is reflected in MLB prediction markets, so let’s try to find value in this matchup.
The Yankees are priced at 56 cents to win this game. Even though Payton Tolle had a terrific year for the Red Sox, the Yankees still have the edge on the mound with Cam Schlittler, who is the second-best pitcher in MLB behind Jacob Misiorowski.
It’s also worth noting that Aaron Judge is out for the wild card round, which is a major loss for the Yankees. Without him, the Red Sox can be considered live dogs in this series. Boston also got some good news with Garrett Crochet on the roster for this series.
With that said, there’s more value in riding with a low-scoring game in this spot.
Instead of choosing a side, I’m going with Over 6.5 runs scored: No, which is priced at 54 cents. On other platforms, this is at 6 runs, so we’re getting a valuable extra half run in this matchup.
Payton Tolle has a 3.03 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP with 39 walks and 171 strikeouts in 148.2 innings. Tolle has allowed a combined three earned runs in his last three starts, spanning 17.2 innings.
When he last faced the Yankees on June 26th, he tossed seven scoreless innings with seven strikeouts.
Cam Schlittler was phenomenal this year, putting up a 1.95 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP with 49 walks and 239 strikeouts in 193.2 innings. He has allowed one earned run or fewer in nine consecutive starts, so he’s in top form for this one.
When Schlittler faced the Red Sox on August 28th, he gave up zero earned runs in 5.2 innings.
Combine these factors, and you come away loving the Under in this spot.
The Yankees price has plummeted in this game. They were initially around 59.5% favorites, but that’s moved down to 55%. It’s clear that the market is reacting to Aaron Judge’s absence, as there was a chance that he could play. Without Judge, the Yankees are definitely vulnerable, especially since the Red Sox have good enough arms to pose a major threat. That’s why I’m sticking with Under 6.5 as my pick for this one.
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