Nolan McLean is among the most talented pitchers in baseball, putting up a 3.06 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP with a 26.7% strikeout rate and a 9.5% walk rate in 155.2 innings.
McLean has been on fire for a while now. In his last 16 starts, he has a 2.19 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP with a 24.8% strikeout rate and a 10.7% walk rate in 94.1 Reds slugger Sal Stewart has surged atop the board for NL Rookie of the Year. He’s followed by a pair of Mets in starting pitcher Nolan McLean and outfielder Carson Benge. Cardinals shortstop JJ Wetherholt has absolutely plummeted in odds. With one month to go, let’s take a closer look at MLB prediction markets.
We’ll start with my pick to win NL Rookie of the Year.
Sal Stewart is my pick to win NL Rookie of the Year. The Reds’ slugger has been on fire in August, slashing .306/.352/.532 with eight home runs. He now has 31 homers, 105 RBI, and 12 stolen bases on the season. With these gaudy offensive numbers, he’s put himself in the pole position to win this award. I can’t envision a scenario where Stewart doesn’t win now.
Sal Stewart was my pick to win NL Rookie of the Year coming into the season. When we updated this page a month ago, I recommended Nolan McLean due to his low price, but since then, Stewart has been absolutely on fire at the plate.
But that’s not the only reason that explains the surge in pricing. Cardinals shortstop JJ Wetherholt has gone from 58% to 4% since our last update. This is because he’s been placed on the injured list with right wrist tendinitis. He’s also slashing .204/.323/.292 in his last 30 games.
With an injury keeping Wetherholt out of the lineup and a cold streak hurting his overall production, Stewart is now clearly ahead of the pack. Wetherholt’s price drop has a strong correlation with Stewart’s surge.
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We’ve seen McLean get in a nice rhythm of late. In his last 11 starts, he has a 2.24 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP with a 27.1% strikeout rate and a 9.7% walk rate in 64.1 innings. During this stretch, McLean has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 14 of 16 outings. This has moved his price from 9% to 11% since our last update.
The problem is that McLean is still well behind Stewart with his numbers. He’d have to completely dominate in December, while Stewart would need a massive cold streak.
Carson Benge is currently slashing .277/.336/.422 with 16 home runs and 19 stolen bases in 541 plate appearances. He has an impressive 112 wRC+ while being worth 3.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). August has been a good month for Benge, as he has a .320/.371/.526 slash with five homers and two steals.
The Mets outfielder wasn’t in the top three contenders in our last update, so this hot streak has put him in a spot where he can be considered a viable longshot. With that said, similar to his teammate McLean, he would need a hot streak with a massive drop-off from Stewart to even have a chance.
Even though you could have a much better price if you bought into Stewart a month ago, he still looks like the best buy over Benge and McLean with how hot he’s been at the plate. It’s been a great rookie year for Benge, but this award feels out of reach.
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