The Chicago White Sox (65-58) are coming off a three-game sweep on the road against the Detroit Tigers. They have now won four of their last five games, set for three games against their crosstown rivals, the Chicago Cubs (72-53).
The Cubs are looking to get back on track after losing two straight and three of their last four games. We’ve got an intriguing matchup on the mound in Luis Castillo vs. Shota Imanaga, so let’s take a closer look at MLB prediction markets to see where we can find value.
The Cubs are priced at 60 cents to win this game because they’re the better team and they’re playing at home. However, this feels a bit too expensive considering how well the White Sox have been playing and how the Cubs are struggling lately.
For the White Sox, Luis Castillo has underwhelming numbers for the year with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 110.2 innings, but he looked terrific in his last outing, pitching seven scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts against the Reds. Perhaps he’s finding his groove with his new team, as he was dealt to the White Sox from the Seattle Mariners at the trade deadline.
For the Cubs, Shota Imanaga has been a bit underwhelming lately, going five innings or fewer in back-to-back starts, including four earned runs in 4.2 innings vs. the Nationals in his last outing. However, Imanaga has solid numbers overall, including a 3.74 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 137.1 innings.
I’m going to avoid choosing a team to win in this game. Instead, I’m focusing on Over 8.5 Runs Scored: No, which is priced at 54 cents. I like what I saw out of Castillo in his last outing, where he completely shut down the Reds, allowing only one hit in seven innings. There’s a chance that a change of scenery will help him out.
Despite a rough last outing, Imanaga had allowed two earned runs or fewer in six straight starts before that. We should see a quality start from him at home, especially with weather forecasts calling for cooler temperatures (74 degrees) with the wind slightly blowing in at 2 MPH. That bodes well for the Under here.
White Sox’ rookie slugger Munetaka Murakami continues to have a terrific debut season in the big leagues, hitting his 28th homer to help the team pull off the sweep vs. the Tigers yesterday.
The White Sox have been hot at the plate, scoring at least four runs in six straight games.
The Cubs lost starting shortstop Dansby Swanson to an oblique injury. He’s likely going to miss extended time.
It’s been a tough stretch for run prevention for the Cubs, as they’ve allowed six runs or more in five of their last six games.
The Cubs were as high as 62.5% favorites for this game, but the market has moved towards the White Sox. The Cubs are now listed as 60% favorites. This makes sense because the White Sox are being a bit undervalued here, especially with how well they’ve been playing lately. With that said, Under 8.5 runs looks like the safest side due to the pitching matchup and favorable weather.
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