The New York Yankees dropped the Divisional Series opener against the Rays in a 1-0 loss. The offense couldn’t get anything going against Drew Rasmussen, who pitched an absolute gem for the Rays, tossing eight innings of scoreless ball with only one hit allowed.
The Tampa Bay Rays will look to take a commanding 2-0 series lead, which would put the Yankees on the ropes. But they’re in trouble because they’re going up against the AL Cy Young favorite, Cam Schlittler. The Rays will need veteran Freddy Peralta to keep up his strong form in this one.
This sets up as another pitcher’s duel. With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB prediction markets to find value on this game.
Despite being on the road, the Yankees are priced at 53 cents to win this game. This is all because of Cam Schlittler, who has been phenomenal this season, putting up a 1.95 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in 193.2 innings. Schlittler got off to a terrific start this postseason, tossing 6.1 scoreless innings vs. the Red Sox.
But we can’t count out Freddy Peralta here. He’s been on quite the roll for the Rays. In his last six starts, he’s given up a combined three earned runs in 34 innings, which is good for an otherworldly 0.79 ERA.
To that end, this game can truly go either way, so there’s more value in targeting the total than a side here.
I don’t like buying into the Yankees as road favorites against a tough Rays team, especially with how well Peralta has been pitching lately. That’s why I’m targeting Under 6.5, which you can get at 49 cents. We just saw these teams play in a low-scoring 1-0 game. There’s a legitimate chance that this one can have a similar result.
Aside from the Schlittler vs. Peralta matchup, each of these teams has fresh bullpens, since they had the day off on Sunday. That bodes well for a low-scoring game.
We saw Schlittler dominate the Rays in eight innings of one-run ball back on July 6th. Don’t be surprised if he has another massive outing here with the Yankees in a must-win game. They can’t afford to go down 2-0 in the series, where they’d be facing elimination heading home.
Back on October 3rd at 9 PM ET, the Yankees were 55% favorites for this game, but their price has fallen to 53 cents. This is likely because the market is reacting to the fact that Freddy Peralta has been excellent lately. In other words, the edge with Cam Schlittler on the mound is not as large as it seems at first glance. To that end, this looks like another pitcher’s duel.
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