The Yankees (59-46) are coming off an 11-4 loss on Sunday Night Baseball against the Phillies. The White Sox (55-49) have been the biggest surprise in MLB, contending for a playoff spot after coming into the year with low expectations.
New York is sending out Max Fried, who looked sharp in his return from injury in his last outing, pitching five scoreless innings with seven strikeouts against the Pirates. Chicago counters with rookie Noah Schultz, who was shelled by the Rangers in his last turn. The Yankees have the edge on the mound in this AL showdown.
The Yankees are priced at 58 cents to win this game, but that’s a little too expensive right now. This is a team with ice-cold bats, scoring only eight runs in their last four games. With that said, I like the edge they have on the mound with Fried (2.97 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) over Schultz (6.04 ERA, 1.46 WHIP).
If we dig deeper into the numbers, we see that Fried has a rock-solid 3.97 SIERA on the season. This is the Yankees’ ace, with a strong track record of 4+ years of high-end production. Meanwhile, Schultz has a 5.03 SIERA, still finding his groove in the big leagues in his rookie season.
That’s why I want to zero in on the pitching matchup by focusing on the Yankees to win after the first five innings. You can get a slight discount on that at Kalshi at 52 cents. This way, I don’t have to worry about the Yankees bullpen blowing the game.
With Fried shutting down the Pirates in his return from a two-month absence, I like the Yankees to hold a lead after five innings in my top MLB prediction for today.
The Yankees placed Cody Bellinger on the IL with a hamstring strain, recalling Spencer Jones to fill the void in his absence.
Yankees’ shortstop prospect George Lombard Jr. has a 125 wRC+ in Triple-A since being promoted, putting him in a spot where he could get called up soon.
The White Sox acquired some pitching depth by picking up Pirates’ right-hander Jose Urquidy for minor league pitcher Felix Doroteo. Urquidy had been pitching for the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate.
The Yankees opened as 49% underdogs for this game, but the price has moved them to 57% favorites due to their pitching matchup with Fried over Schultz. There is a good chance that this price can get to 58-59% by game time, as more volume comes in on the Yankees when the public recognizes how impressive Fried looked in his return to action.
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