The 2026 World Cup is still in the early stages of its initial “Group” phase, and Polymarket traders have already placed $2.6 billion in trades on which team will win. As one might expect, Spain’s stock has tanked due to its 0-0 tie against Cabo Verde, leaving France as the clear frontrunner.
There’s still plenty of action left before we get to the single elimination part of the world’s most prestigious soccer event. From heavy favorites to pure longshots, prediction market sports traders can still buy and sell individual markets for all 48 teams.
France bested Senegal in its “Group I” opener Tuesday, and will take on Iraq early next week. The 2018 World Cup champions have a clear path to six points within their group, which will give them enough to guarantee an advancement to the Round of 32 that begins in late June.
We’re thinking along the same lines as Polymarket traders, and like the “yes” option for France to win it all at 18.5¢ per contract. While the price may seem elevated, there’s no denying that the team is poised to advance given the perceived, relative weakness of the Iraqi squad.
Also, now is probably the best time to pick up the option for “yes” on Spain winning the World Cup. The team may have had an unimpressive start against Cabo Verde, but that has sweetened the pot for value-seekers who are buying Spain for 13.9 cents per contract.
If you’re not following a specific team closely, then the main news surrounding the 2026 World Cup is the sheer volume of prediction market trading that has already occurred. With $2.6B in activity for the winner’s market alone, there’s more than a “good” chance that Polymarket traders will move the final figure to 11 figures by the time July 19th comes around.
Other teams that are receiving top consideration for lifting the coveted gold trophy at New York New Jersey Stadium include Argentina and England, both of which won their World Cup opening matches. If you’re looking to choose a “dark horse” team, you can’t go wrong with Brazil at 6.7 cents. All winning contracts settle at exactly $1 once the winner’s market has been resolved, but your prediction must be correct in order for it to be profitable.
Spain is the biggest mover due to its disappointing performance against Cabo Verde on Monday. It will have an opportunity to silence its critics if it overwhelms Saudi Arabia on Sunday morning. Mexico’s chances have increased ever-so-slightly, but the team is still a huge underdog in the winner’s market at 1.4 cents per contract. Look for that trade price to elevate even more if the tournament co-host is successful in its match against South Korea at Estadio Guadalajara tonight.
The Group stage of the 2026 World Cup concludes on June 27th, where 32 teams will advance. From that point forward, all matches will be single elimination. If you’re ready to pick your own winner for the World Cup, you can sign up for a Polymarket account today and start trading!
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