Monday night’s World Cup match between the United States and Belgium saw Kalshi forecasters put in more than $260,000,000 in total prediction market trading volume on a single match. Despite the USMNT’s 4-1 loss to Belgium, the notional trading volume metrics are staggering.
At various points throughout the match, Kalshi traders were placing more than $1,000,000 per minute in single-match trades, which peaked during the first half when United States midfielder Malik Tillman scored an equalizer to even the match at 1-1. In the end, the USMNT simply didn’t have the shots on goal to come back from the deficit they faced throughout the vast majority of the Round of 16 match. Belgium now advances to the quarterfinals, while the US becomes the last co-hosting country to be eliminated from the 2026 World Cup.
Kalshi fans and detractors took to X Monday in reaction to a report that one single trader placed a $920,000 prediction on the USMNT losing its Round of 16 contest against Belgium. The report, posted by paid influencer FearBuck, showed that the position would pay out a maximum of $2,000,000 following the United States team’s loss Monday night.
The trade was opened before the match started, but after World Cup officials had reinstated US striker Folarin Balogun after the star had received a red card suspension in the team’s Round of 32 victory over Bosnia and Herzegovina. As fate would have it, the USMNT was never really competitive in the second half of the match.
France remains the clear frontrunner on Kalshi to win the 2026 World Cup. It is currently priced at 34.4 cents per contract and is scheduled to play Morocco in the quarterfinals on Thursday.
As we see it, Spain still represents the best value among the remaining teams. You can pick Spain to win the 2026 World Cup at 18.7¢ per contract, especially if you’re confident they can outperform an inspired Belgium team that soundly defeated the United States.
Kalshi has now hosted more than $1B in total trades on the 2026 World Cup winner outcome alone, but you can expect that market to surge well beyond one billion as the action progresses. The quarterfinals begin on July 9th.
The news cycle is being dominated primarily by the sheer trading volume that is taking place on prediction markets like Kalshi. Although “notional” trading volume isn’t quite comparable to traditional sportsbook “handle” (due to how prediction market “combo” trades are categorized), Kalshi and other prediction markets are breaking their own records as the World Cup draws closer to determining a champion.
The (technically) peer-to-peer “yes/no” trade option format for predicting sports outcomes is proving to be far more popular among American forecasters than traditional “against the house” sportsbook lines. As a CFTC-regulated exchange, Kalshi also has the advantage of offering event contracts on sports outcomes in 48 of 50 states, with only Nevada and Michigan currently excluded (pending the outcome of ongoing legal battles in those states).
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