The Los Angeles Clippers announced a trade that would send Kawhi Leonard back to the Toronto Raptors on July 9th. At that time, NBA prediction markets reacted quickly. The price on the Raptors to win the NBA Championship spiked from 1 cent to 5 cents. But now, it’s fallen to 3 cents. We can understand this shift in the market by looking at a couple of key developments.
For one, the Kawhi trade has stalled. The trade has been put on hold due to an ongoing investigation by the NBA, where they’re checking to see if the Clippers circumvented the salary cap. The Raptors decided to pause the deal because they didn’t want to sign a liability clause that would mean they’d take on any potential penalties or league discipline against Leonard.
However, there is reason to believe that the investigation will be finalized soon. Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic recently appeared on the Rich Eisen Show, stating that the NBA is now reviewing the findings of the firm they hired for this investigation. They’re determining whether or not Clippers owner Steve Ballmer or Kawhi himself will face any fines.
Once that’s finalized, Kawhi will be sent to the Raptors. Reading between the lines here: it should be done in a couple of weeks. The market is overreacting a bit to this news by dropping the Raptors NBA Champion price.
It’s worth noting that there is still a market for Kawhi’s Next Team at Kalshi, with the Raptors priced at 80 cents. The other option is that he stays with the Clippers or retires.
I’d be willing to buy shares even at that steep price because it feels like a foregone conclusion that he’s with the Raptors. Even if Kawhi is suspended, the Raptors are unlikely to back out of the trade, since they manage his playing time even when he’s available to play. In other words, he’s not playing 82 games regardless.
The other external factor that pushed the Raptors’ price down is the surprising news that LeBron James signed with the 76ers. With Jaylen Brown, Tyrese Maxey, and Joel Embiid, the Sixers have emerged as title contenders.
They’re now one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, which is reflected in the market. Their price moved from 6 cents to 12 cents with this news. When one team’s price moves up, another has to move down, which is exactly what happened with the Raptors to win the 2027 NBA Championship here.
I’d be willing to buy the dip on the Raptors to be the 2027 NBA Champion. You’re getting them at three cents, which is only two more than their initial price, before Kawhi to Toronto was even in motion. The deal is still very likely to happen, which puts the Raptors as one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.
Remember, you can buy the Raptors to be 2027 NBA Champion now, and then exit your position if they go on a deep postseason run. That would increase the price by about 7-10 cents, so you can take an early profit in that scenario.
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