The Las Vegas Aces (27-13) are one of the best teams in the WNBA, looking to continue their three-game winning streak that began before the break. As the third-ranked offensive team and fifth-ranked defensive team, the Aces are as well-rounded as it gets.
Vegas is in a favorable spot on the road against the Seattle Storm (8-32), who are the worst team in the league. But when these teams met on June 8th, Vegas only won by 10 points, so there’s a chance that this one is closer than projected. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at prediction market apps to find value.
The Aces are priced at 82 cents to win this game. This is despite being on the road, which highlights the disparity in talent between these two teams. It’s a matchup of one of the best in the league vs. one of the worst. With that said, this price is too rich for my taste.
I also don’t like taking a road favorite to win by 10+ points, as is the case with the Aces here. That makes the total look more appealing. We’ve seen Vegas score 93, 88, and 101 points during their current three-game winning streak. Facing one of the worst defensive teams could result in another strong showing on offense.
I’m going with the Aces team total over 92.5 points, which you can get at 53 cents. As mentioned above, this is a number that the Aces have eclipsed in two of their last three games. When these teams met on June 8th, the Aces put up 101 points.
While the Storm have held opponents to 92 points or fewer in three straight games, none of those teams were as good on offense as the Aces.
Considering that we’re getting a reasonable bar at 92.5 points, one that the Aces went over when they faced the Storm last time, that feels like a rock-solid buy for this one. My only concern is that a blowout for the Aces could slow down scoring, but that’s mitigated by the fact that they’re on the road. If they were at home, there would be more blowout risk.
The Aces have remained 82-cent favorites for most of the time leading up to this game. There hasn’t really been any movement. As someone who doesn’t want to pay a premium for a team to win, I’m much more interested in going with Aces over team total at 53 cents. It’s a more appealing price.
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