The Indiana Fever (17-10) have won three in a row and seven of their last 10 games, fresh off a pair of dominant victories, most notably against the New York Liberty, where they blew them out by 20 points.
The Seattle Storm (6-23) have the worst record in the WNBA, so they’re in a tough spot in this game. It’s going to be tough for the Storm to slow down Caitlin Clark and company. But is it worth it to lay heavy points on the Fever at prediction market apps? Or is there more value in buying into the home underdog Storm? Let’s dive in.
The Fever are priced at 78 cents to win this game, which is way too expensive. If we want to pick a side, we need to stick to the point spread. You can buy the Fever to win by over 9.5 points at 51 cents, which feels like a strong value.
In their last two games, Indiana has won by 35 points against the Sun and 20 points vs. the Liberty. The Fever only beat the Storm 110-107 when they faced each other in Indiana on July 17th. However, I’m still backing the Fever to win by more than 9.5 points here.
In that matchup, the Storm shot 56% from the field, which is unsustainable, considering that they shoot 43.4% from the field on the season, which ranks 14th in the WNBA. That was a game where Caitlin Clark dropped 45 points. Clark clearly has her way with this defense, so it’s the right matchup for the Fever.
The fact that the line is at -9.5 tells me all I need to know here. The market trusts the Fever because they’re firing on all cylinders right now. I’ll take a shot on a Fever that is 1st in Offensive Rating getting it done in this spot.
Caitlin Clark has been on a minutes restriction for the Fever, playing 29 minutes or fewer in nine consecutive games. Before that, she played between 30-40 minutes in her previous eight games. But even with those restrictions, she’s been on fire, including 45 points in only 29 minutes vs. the Storm.
The Storm have lost six games in a row, but five of those games have been by 10 points or fewer, including a three-point defeat vs. the Fever. Despite their struggles, Seattle has been able to keep it close for the most part.
The Fever opened as 75% favorites for this game, but the price has moved them to 78%, as the market is reacting to their recent stretch of dominance. You’re unlikely to get a better price than this as we get closer to tip-off, so the better move is to take Indiana to win by more than 9.5 points.
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