The New York Knicks completed the greatest comeback in NBA Finals history Monday night, besting the Spurs 107-106 after trailing by 29 points in the 3rd Quarter. Similar to the Knicks’ feat in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals against Cleveland, New York took advantage of its opponent’s overconfidence to win a playoff game in which they appeared to be out of contention.
Yes, the Spurs suffered another NBA Finals letdown – the most severe in what has already been a series of “what ifs” for the young team. But the Knicks took advantage of the Spurs’ mental lapse. New York seized the moment and now finds itself on the cusp of its first professional basketball championship since 1973.
Although tonight’s Game 5 is at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, we don’t dare pick the Spurs to win. They’ll throw the ball away in the final minute; or get pressured into shooting when they should hold the ball to run out the clock. Game 5 might be close (or it might not be), but we’re going with the New York Knicks to win the NBA championship tonight in front of San Antonio fans.
The Knicks have a 3-1 series lead, and have already won both of their NBA Finals contests in San Antonio. If you’re a Kalshi prediction market trader looking for value, you can’t go wrong with the Knicks for only 36 cents per contract. Jalen Brunson is too good, OG Anunoby is too clutch, and the Spurs fall apart too easily when the game’s on the line.
This leads us to our second favorite pick of the day – take Jalen Brunson for NBA Finals MVP. You can pick him up at only 50¢ due to Anunoby’s “light’s out” Game 4 three-pointer. Barring another breakout game from OG, Jalen Brunson is your best bet for the series MVP as long as the Knicks win the NBA Finals.
Everyone is talking about the Spurs blowing a 29-point 3rd Quarter lead that allowed the Knicks to make NBA Finals history Monday night. The Spurs have had their chances throughout the series, but have abandoned fundamental basketball principles in the final seconds of each of the three games they’ve dropped.
Even if the Spurs pull off a Game 5 victory tonight, they’ll have to travel back to New York to face the Knicks in Game 6 next week. Until further notice, Victor Wembanyama is out as series MVP if you’re a Kalshi trader. The only justification for buying his series MVP contract now is if you’re predicting that the Spurs will win three games in a row going forward.
The major market movement ahead of tonight’s potential last game of the 2025-26 NBA season is just how much OG Anunoby’s MVP price has jumped. When this week began, Anunoby’s contract price was under two cents. He’s now listed at 32 cents and is the “second favorite” behind Jalen Brunson.
In case you’re wondering, Wembanyama’s MVP price has fallen by more than 60% – all the way down to 18 cents per contract. The only reason to pick up the star center’s contract now is if you’re forecasting a Spurs 3-0 series run to end the NBA Finals.
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