As we enter the month of July, we now know that LeBron James will not be a member of the Los Angeles Lakers once the 2026-27 NBA regular season gets underway. Three potential teams top the list for James’ landing spot later this year: Golden State, Cleveland, and Miami.
Those who have been keeping up with the latest developments are now predicting that James will make his debut as a member of the Golden State Warriors. We’ll go over the reasons why this prediction market has shifted and break down the three most likely teams below.
It’s not often that star players and a team’s front office agree to reorganize key pay structure components just to attract a single individual. But then again, it’s not often that you get a chance to incorporate the NBA’s all-time leading scorer into your starting roster.
Draymond Green and the Golden State Warriors have done just that. Upon learning Tuesday that LeBron James won’t return to the Los Angeles Lakers, Green declined his $27.7 million player option. The move now paves the way for the Warriors to offer the 41-year-old James a decent contract.
Kalshi traders have picked up on the “Mid-Level Exception” (MLE) for non-taxpayers that the Warriors can use to add LeBron James to the team, and have correspondingly sent the odds skyrocketing in Golden State’s favor. We agree with this assessment, and are choosing the Warriors at 47¢ per contract to become the landing destination for one of the most prolific players in the NBA’s storied history.
Kalshi trading volume on this market has soared in the past 24 hours, surpassing $20 million and placing the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers as the two main favorites. The Miami Heat are still listed as a Top 3 possibility, but the team’s excruciating practice regimen is an unlikely fit for LeBron James’ needs as a veteran looking to preserve as many “playing” years as possible.
Once ESPN announced that James had informed his current team, the Los Angeles Lakers, that he won’t return for the 2026-27 season, the odds immediately shifted. Draymond Green’s selfless gesture of turning down his $27.7 million player option has sealed Golden State as the number one option for Lebron James’ next team in the minds of Kalshi forecasters.
Although speculation remains rampant, the Warriors are looking as if they are poised to build their version of a dream team that could eventually include Green, James, Stephen Curry, and Jimmy Butler. The Cleveland Cavaliers are still listed at 31¢ per contract on the “yes” option because some traders believe that the Warriors’ front office won’t be able to execute this off-season and that Lebron truly wants to end his career near his hometown of Akron, Ohio.
The Golden State Warriors now own the top spot, followed by the Cleveland Cavaliers in a close second place, and the Miami Heat at a distant third. As we’ve already discussed, Miami isn’t a good fit for LeBron now that he’s over 40, which leaves one of two highly probable destinations.
The moves made by the Golden State Warriors organization point to that team being the clear favorite, but trading volume is likely to rise even more in upcoming days as traders go back and forth between the Warriors and the Cavaliers.
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