The San Antonio Spurs proved their playoff resilience Sunday night with a convincing victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder to even the series at two games apiece. The NBA Western Conference Finals now return to Paycom Center in OKC for a pivotal Game 5.
The Spurs were once again led by 7’4” center Victor Wembanyama, who put on a clinic throughout the Game 4 contest that was never really close. Unlike Game 1 of the WCF, San Antonio didn’t need double-overtime to overcome the Thunder. as Game 4 was pretty much in-hand, with the Spurs leading 78-60, going into the 4th Quarter.
Each team has gone 1-1 on the opponent’s home court; each team has shown moments of superiority and weakness. But the Thunder were seriously exposed in Sunday’s loss against San Antonio, putting up their worst per-game scoring effort of the season (the final score was 103-82).
All-star Victor Wembanyama had the luxury of spending most of the 4th Quarter on the bench, despite only having two personal fouls, and scored 33 meaningful points. For these reasons, we like the Spurs to win Game 5 on the road, especially at any price under 45 cents per contract.
Along that same thread, we are buying San Antonio’s most intimidating paint presence since the “Twin Towers” for series MVP as long as the price remains under 45 cents. If the Spurs win two out of their next three games, they’ll be in the 2025-26 NBA Finals.
How bad was Oklahoma City’s Game 4 offensive effort? The Thunder’s previous per-game scoring low was posted back in February, in a 110-93 loss against the Bucks. OKC was outscored in each of the four quarters Sunday night against a San Antonio team that didn’t relent.
Both De’Aaron Fox (ankle) and Dylan Harper (thigh) saw limited time in Game 4, but it was the solid Spurs team effort, coupled with the Thunder’s 30-for-91 shooting from the field that made the difference. If both players are able to recover even more between now and Tuesday night, the Spurs could head into the Paycom Center with better odds than 45 cents.
The most obvious prediction market sports movements ahead of Game 5 of the NBA WCF are linked to the series winner and MVP. Still, Kalshi forecasters aren’t quite ready to give San Antonio the edge in either category.
Late Sunday night, the Spurs per-contract price for a Game 5 victory remained relatively low at just 35 cents, while a Wembanyama series MVP award failed to break 42 cents. Look for both these markets to move significantly leading up to Game 5 (barring any major injury news).
As for the odds-on favorite to win the series and the MVP trophy, that distinction, according to Kalshi traders, remains with the Oklahoma City Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, respectively. Game 5 between the Spurs and the Thunder tips-off Tuesday night at 7:00pm local time.
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